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© 2026 Benzinga | All Rights Reserved
September 6, 2023 10:27 AM 3 min read

Rising Brent Crude Prices Could Tighten US Interest Rates, Warn Economists

by Piero Cingari Benzinga Staff Writer
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Once again in the spotlight, Brent crude oil prices, are at their highest levels this year. This is largely due to anticipated further reductions in oil output from major exporting countries.

In a surprising move, Saudi Arabia has hinted at even more significant production cutbacks in the near future. This comes after Saudi Arabia and Russia, the main forces behind the current price increase, extended their commitment to cut oil production by a total of 1.3 million barrels per day.

Oil’s Production Cuts To Send Shockwaves

As reported by The New York Times, Commodities analyst Nadia Martin Wiggen from Pareto Securities, speaking to Bloomberg, voiced the possibility of Brent crude reaching the coveted $100 per barrel mark, a level reminiscent of the post-Ukraine invasion era.

Costlier oil may send shockwaves through higher interest rates. Economist Jorge León of Rystad Energy, contacted by the NY Times, asserts that higher oil prices will only increase the likelihood of more tightening, especially in the U.S., to curtail inflation.

Michael Tran, managing director at RBC Capital Markets LLC, told Bloomberg that “the Central Bank of oil” is exerting heavy pressure on short sellers, referencing the regained pricing power of oil producers.

Read also: Why Goldman Sachs Is Increasingly Confident In Dodging Recession, Contrary To Wall Street Consensus

US Concerns And Possible Solutions

The U.S. is particularly sensitive to this price increase, with the Biden administration striving to avert $4-a-gallon gasoline. Gas prices are already at their highest seasonal level in over a decade, and renewed inflationary pressures could strain consumers and disrupt global central bank efforts to quell inflation.

Global leaders may seek relief from sanctioned oil exporters, with Iran’s exports surging since Saudi cuts began. Venezuela, also under sanctions, looks to Beijing for help in reviving production.

Market Impact

Chart: Energy Stocks Have Soared This Summer, Leaving The Rest Of The Market In The Dust

Read now: Why A Corporate Debt’s Ticking Time Bomb Could Make A 2024 Recession Inevitable, Analyst Warns

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo: Shutterstock

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Posted In:
Analyst ColorMacro Economic EventsSector ETFsBondsCommoditiesEconomicsFederal ReserveAnalyst RatingsETFsAI GeneratedAnalyst NoteBrentChinaExpert IdeasFedFOMCInflationInterest RatesOiloil pricesRussiaSaudi ArabiaTreasury YieldsWTI
QQQ Logo
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
$595.46-1.07%
Overview
SPY Logo
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$677.49-0.63%
UTEN Logo
UTENUS Treasury 10 Year Note ETF
$44.630.10%
XLE Logo
XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
$53.55-1.47%

Warren Patterson, head of Commodities Strategy at ING Groep N.V., points out that this extension leaves the market with a deeper-than-expected deficit in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, concerns over demand and rising Iranian supply could limit price increases. ING forecasts that Brent oil will keep averaging $92 a barrel for the remainder of 2023.

Investors have responded by offloading government bonds, including 10-year Treasury bills, as tracked by US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NASDAQ:UTEN), amid concerns that central banks will need to remain hawkish on interest rates to counter the inflationary impact of rising energy prices. A flurry of corporate-bond issuances this week has further roiled the debt markets.

On the stock market front, energy-related companies have materially outperformed the rest of sectors recently. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) is up 15% over the past three months, a performance that outpaces the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) threefold and exceeds the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) of the Nasdaq 100 by more than double.

QQQ Logo
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
$595.46-1.07%
Overview
SPY Logo
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$677.49-0.63%
UTEN Logo
UTENUS Treasury 10 Year Note ETF
$44.630.10%
XLE Logo
XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
$53.55-1.47%
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