Altair Engineering Likely For Multiple Expansion Backed By Business Resilience, Expanding Margins, Analyst Says

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  • Needham analyst Charles Shi maintained Altair Engineering Inc ALTR with a Buy and raised the price target from $60 to $70.
  • Altair reported strong 4Q22 results that beat consensus and guided 1Q23, broadly in line with Shi's estimates. 
  • The company, however, sees the top-line growth rate to be ~8%, which exceeded Shi's estimate of ~4%. 
  • Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties, Altair's strong 2023 guidance adds to the story of a resilient business model as a design and engineering software business. 
  • Management cited the discontinuation of certain product lines of acquired businesses starting in 1Q23 as part of the reason for the below-seasonal guidance.
  • Management believes Technology and Banking verticals will grow faster, but Aerospace and Automotive verticals will still grow at a decent rate. 
  • Relative to Shi's concern about a slowdown in the Automotive vertical, ALTR's outlook is much better than expected.
  • ALTR's 2023 guidance implies ~20%+ EBITDA margin on a full-year basis, which is well above Shi's original expectation of ~18%. 
  • ALTR set the goal of exiting 2023 with a 20% EBITDA margin on a run-rate basis. The guidance suggests that ALTR is ahead of the plan.
  • The analyst raised his 2023 estimates according to the new full-year guidance and adjusted his 2024 estimates slightly to reflect a higher 2023 base. 
  • Shi saw ALTR delivering $671 million in revenue and a ~22% EBITDA margin in 2024. 
  • Due to the business resiliency and the expanding margins, the analyst believed the stock might see further multiple expansion.
  • ALTR Price Action: Altair shares traded higher by 8.21% at $61.22 on the last check Friday.
  • Photo: rafapress via Shutterstock
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