Stellar Opportunity For Merck At Upcoming Data Presentation, Analyst Says While Boosting Price Target

  • Credit Suisse has raised the price target on Merck & Co Inc MRK from $120 to $125, with an Outperform rating.
  • The 2023 American College of Cardiology conference is expected to be a significant catalyst for Merck, says the analyst. 
  • The key investor focus will be readouts on March 6 from sotatercept's Phase 3 STELLAR trial for Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) and the cholesterol-lowering Phase 2 data from oral PCSK9 (MK-0616).
  • KOL expects a ~25-meter improvement in a six-minute walk distance, which should see sotatercept being slotted as a 4L agent add-on to conventional triplet therapy. 
  • Credit Suisse forecasts a 90% probability of c.$3 billion in peak sales.
  • CS's KOL's expectations for Phase 2 data are for a similar level of lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol as injectable PCSK9. Tolerability will be key.
  • The analyst has increased the POS from 30% to 50% and oral PCSK9 peak sales from $1.3 billion to $5 billion. However, a slow build with a turning point based on CVOT data is expected in 2028.
  • Price Action: MRK shares are up 0.06% at $108.64 on the last check Monday.
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