The Tesla Inc. TSLA stock has soared 86% from the year-to-date low of $104.64 and gained about 58.11% year-to-date, as investors bet on improving fundamentals and economy.
What Happened: For the Tesla stock, the next catalytic event is the company’s first-ever “Investor Day” scheduled for Mar. 1.
Tesla bull and Future Fund’s Gary Black offered his take on what to expect from the event, with particular focus on the electric vehicle maker’s much-awaited Cybertruck.
See Also: Everything You Need To Know About Tesla Stock
Cybertruck: The two biggest upside catalysts from the Mar. 1 event are likely to be Cybertrucks and Megapacks, Black tweeted. The Street is modeling Cybertruck deliveries of 10,000 units in 2023, 92,000 units in 2024 and 160,000 in 2025, he noted.
Black’s Future Fund Active ETF FFND has Tesla as its top holding, with a 9.36% weighting.
The fund manager believes that actual Cybertruck deliveries could be two times the consensus estimate, contributing $0.60 per share to 2025 earnings per share. The total addressable market for pick-up trucks is about 20% of all sales, Black noted.
Megapack: Black noted that the Street targets incremental revenue of $1.6 billion from Megapacks in 2023, assuming 800 units, $3.4 billion in 2024, assuming 1,700 units, and 2025 revenue of $5.4 billion, assuming 2,700 units. Actual deliveries could be three times as much, adding $0.80 per share to EPS, Black said.
Megapack is a powerful battery that provides energy storage and support, helping to stabilize the grid and prevent outages. Each unit, according to Tesla, can store 3 megawatt-hours of energy, which is enough to power an average of 3,600 homes for an hour.
After Investor Day, assuming nothing new except Cybertruck and megapacks, investors can add $1.40 per share to the 2025 adjusted EPS estimate of $7.20, the fund manager said. “That’s a lot of upside,” he added. To highlight the attractive valuation of the stock, Black said, “With $TSLA at $200 and $8.60 EPS that’s 23x 2025 proforma EPS.”
Tesla shares closed Monday’s session 2.52% higher at $194.76, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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