Bringing Fox And News Corp Back Together Again Scares This Analyst, Who Just Downgraded The Stock On Merger Concerns

  • Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson downgraded Fox Corp FOX FOXA to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $36, down from $41
  • Rupert Murdoch weighed merging his media empire, News Corp NWSA and Fox, nearly a decade after the companies split.
  • Fox is increasingly facing a "shift to unfavorable" fiscal 2024 drivers that do not appear fully factored into consensus, including political and Super Bowl compares and the first-year Sunday NFL step-up.
  • Fox faced a growing CY23 advertising recession risk against Fox's annual $6 billion advertising.
  • Fox also faced increasing secular concerns, including cord-cutting accelerating (and 2023 perhaps worse with Sunday Ticket moving to a streamer and a potential consumer recession). 
  • Thus, the near-to-midterm investment case increasingly relied on the fair allocation of its $5 billion cash (vs. its $17 billion market cap). 
  • Price Action: FOX shares are down 6.82% at $27.17 on the last check Monday.
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