Mizuho On Atara Biotherapeutics - Distinguish Between Small Numbers And Science Failure

  • Atara Biotherapeutics Inc ATRA issued its anticipated interim analysis communication for its ATA188 Phase 2 progressive multiple sclerosis trial. Shares slumped over 50%.
  • Mizuho thinks that investors need to make a clear distinction as they reassess their position after these inconclusive results and no-sample-size adjustment communication. 
  • Is there any new risk with the actual science and data itself? Mizuho writes:
  • The interim data was based mainly on the Phase 1 data, which showed that six-month EDSS improvement was >85% predicative of that at 12 months. But the study itself was small, with only 24 patients.
  • Data was even smaller, with EDSS data on 34 patients at six months and 15 patients at twelve months. 
  • The analyst notes dose and time-dependent response from the single-arm ATA188 Phase 1, sustained disability EDSS improvement in the 33-50% range in the higher dose cohorts, and similar data from autologous sister compound ATA190.
  • Mizuho keeps the price target at $39 with a Buy rating.
  • Price Action: ATRA shares are down 55% at $3.90 during the market session on the last check Wednesday.
Price Target
Posted In: Analyst ColorBiotechNewsPenny StocksHealth CareReiterationSmall CapAnalyst RatingsMoversTrading IdeasGeneralBriefswhy it's moving