What Tesla App Downloads Say About EV Maker's Q3 Deliveries

Tesla Inc TSLA shares, which saw a nice bump Monday, are continuing to head higher.

The 12.5% gain in EV maker's stock Monday was attributed to an across-the-board tech rebound and positive sell-side commentary from Goldman Sachs.

Tesla's Ambitious 500K Target For 2020: Tesla delivered 179,387 vehicles in the first half of 2020: 88,496 vehicles in the first quarter and 90,891 units in the second. 

The automaker said in the second-quarter earnings release that it continues to expect deliveries of 500,000 vehicles in 2020 despite production interruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This means Tesla has to step on the gas pedal to deliver 320,613 vehicles in the second half.

Tesla App Downloads A Reason For Hope? Global weekly Tesla app downloads have been trending higher year-over-year, Goldman Sachs said in a Monday note, citing data from Sensor Tower.

The recent full-week app downloads showed a 20% year-over-year increase, reflecting the late-quarter push Tesla typically witnesses, the firm said.

The year-over-year increase is attributable primarily to China, and growth in both China and U.S. has contributed to Tesla's year-to-date growth, according to Goldman Sachs. 

Gordon Johnson's Contrarian Take: Tesla's third-quarter deliveries are now  estimated at 131,500, plus or minus 5,000, GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson said.

The break-up of the total numbers works out to 35,000 made-in-China Model 3 vehicles and 95,000 units from Fremont, the analyst said.

This would represent a 36% year-over-year growth from the 97,000 vehicles Tesla delivered in the third quarter of 2019, he said. 

The Tesla app is free to download and downloads by a couple would represent double counting in the data, Johnson said. 

"If anything this app download data, to us, looks like a miss is on tap for TSLA for 3Q20 deliveries." 

The analyst said it is too early to make any conclusive deductions, as the very "end-of-the-month push" matters.

TSLA Price Action: At last check, Tesla shares were adding 9.08% to $457.74.

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Photo courtesy of Tesla. 

Posted In: electric vehiclesEVsGLJ ResearchGoldman SachsGordon JohnsonAnalyst ColorAnalyst Ratings