Tesla Analyst Estimates 'Staggering' 650K Cybertruck Preorders


One of the biggest potential catalysts for Tesla Inc TSLA in the next couple of years is the Cybertruck, and one analyst said on Monday he's cautiously optimistic Tesla’s first truck will be a big hit.

The Tesla Analyst: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated his Neutral rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla.

The Tesla Thesis: Ives said the Cybertruck appears to be gaining momentum ahead of a 2021 or 2022 launch.

“We estimate that pre-order levels are staggering coming out of the gates since announced last year and currently stand north of 650k based on our estimate with momentum building for this latest Musk brainchild,” Ives wrote in a note.

Given initial demand for the Cybertruck appears significant, Ives said the next big news from the company regarding the Cybertruck could be the location for the Cybertruck factory. Ives said Austin, Texas and Tulsa, Oklahoma appear to be frontrunners at this point.

Ives said another big question for investors will be determining whether or not the Cybertruck will be a niche “wow factor” model or a serious, large-scale challenger for legacy truck makers.

Finally, Ives said Tesla investors will be watching the development of early-stage EV truck competitor Nikola Corporation NKLA, which is targeting 2022 for the launch of its Badger EV pickup truck.

Looking ahead, Ives said expectations for the Cybertruck will likely be between 175,000 and 200,000 deliveries in the first full year of production.

Benzinga’s Take: Ives' Cybertruck delivery projection of at least 175,000 trucks in 2022 is fairly aggressive given Tesla delivered just 367,500 vehicles total in 2019.

Ives’ $1,000 price target and Neutral rating are also indicative of how even bullish Tesla analysts are having a difficult time justifying much valuation upside from current levels.

Do you agree with this take? Email feedback@benzinga.com with your thoughts.

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