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Stifel: What To Expect From Facebook, Amazon Q1 Prints

Stifel: What To Expect From Facebook, Amazon Q1 Prints

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Wednesday April 25 followed by, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)'s Q1 report one day later. Stifel previewed what investors can expect in two notes. 

The Analyst

Stifel's Scott Devitt maintains a Hold rating on Facebook's stock with an unchanged $168 price target. The analyst maintains a Buy rating on Amazon's stock with an unchanged $1,800 price target.


Devitt is modeling the following metrics for Facebook's report:

  • A 42-percent revenue increase  from one year ago to $11.43 billion.
  • Ad revenue is expected to rise 43 percent from a year ago after rising 44 percent last quarter.
  • Impression growth should moderate from 4 percent year-over-year in Q4 and 10 percent in Q3 to 3 percent in Q1. 
  • Pricing growth likely moderated from 43 percent year-over-year in Q4 to 39 percent.
  • Total monthly active users likely grew 13.1 percent year-over-year versus 14.5 percent last quarter to 2.19 billion.
  • Total daily active users likely grew 11.8 percent year-over-year to 1.44 billion.

Overall, Facebook's earnings report is likely to show no material impact in its advertising business from recent data privacy concern-related headlines, the analyst said.

The report could signal negative engagement trends in North America and Europe, and if this continues longer-term, estimates could prove to be "optimistic," especially coupled with ongoing concerns around regulation, consumer trends and consumer usage levels, Devitt said. 

Facebook's stock is trading at 19x 2019E GAAP EPS, which reflects the company's known risks to "to a degree," the analyst said. Investors may want to wait for further visibility before taking a stance on the stock, he said. 

Related Link: Alphabet Q1 Earnings Preview: What To Expect From The Next FANG Stock To Report


Devitt is modeling the following for Amazon's report:

  • Revenue growth of 41 percent year-over-year to $50.4 billion, or 29 percent excluding Whole Foods.
  • Retail sales likely grew 5.2 percent year-over-year and non-retail sales grew 10 percent.
  • Cloud revenue likely grew 46 percent year-over-year to $5.3 billion.
  • Operating income of $908 million for the whole company. 
  • Margins of 1.8 percent would imply a 100-basis-point year-over-year decline amid ongoing investments in AWS, Prime, Alexa devices and more.

Amazon exited the 2017 holiday season with strong momentum and this likely carried over in the first quarter due to the following reasons, Devitt said:

  • A healthy macro environment.
  • Record consumer sentiment levels.
  • Continued expansion of Prime, which exceeded 100 million customers.

Over the longer term, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on two rapidly growing markets, e-commerce and cloud services, Devitt said. Investors are encouraged to be buyers on any weakness from "peripheral issues" in the upcoming earnings report, he said. 

Price Action

Facebook shares were up 0.79 percent at the time of publication Monday, while Amazon was trading down slightly. 

Related Link:

A Q2 Cheat Sheet For Large-Cap Tech Earnings

Latest Ratings for AMZN

Feb 2021CitigroupMaintainsBuy
Feb 2021UBSMaintainsBuy
Feb 2021BenchmarkMaintainsBuy

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