FOMC: Hawkish Cut Or Dovish Cut And Why It Matters

FOMC Today

The market is pricing in an 88 percent chance of a rate cut tomorrow, but the real question is whether we get a hawkish cut or a dovish cut. A dovish cut would signal room for more easing, while a hawkish cut would imply the Fed is tapping the brakes on further reductions.

Right now, futures show the next cut pushed out to April and only two cuts expected in 2026, a big step down from the four cuts analysts were anticipating just weeks ago. This is why Powell's commentary matters far more than the decision itself.

Oracle Earnings: Backlog or Bluff?

Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) enters earnings with its massive $455B backlog, but it's a double-edged sword. If they report another huge backlog jump, the market may call their bluff on how real or monetizable those commitments are. If backlog comes in lower, that means the skepticism was justified all along.

Complicating things, Oracle's debt is cheap and demand for their paper has been soft, suggesting the credit market isn't fully aligned with the AI-cloud growth story. Either way, this print matters.

Adobe: Cheap for a Reason or a Setup for a Run?

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is trading at a historically low valuation relative to its own long-term multiples, but that alone doesn't make it a buy. The chart, however, is starting to look more constructive: shares are pushing toward reclaiming the daily 100MA, which would mark a shift back into a bullish posture.

With earnings coming up, the question is whether ADBE can reassert itself as a software leader in an AI world or if the business has simply lost momentum. I'm considering going long here… but waiting to see one more day of price action. Tune in tomorrow for the breakdown.

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