After the stock market has recovered from the bear market territory following tariff pauses and trade deals, experts at Fidelity Investments and JPMorgan expect it to stay rangebound for 2025.
What Happened: After a few deals and pauses were announced in April, Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, explained in his note that the lower and upper boundaries for the market have been set.
He highlighted that stocks were down 20% and they have recovered since, “That suggests that while the lower boundary for this market correction may have been established, so has the upper boundary.”
“All this puts me firmly in the trading range camp in terms of what the next 6-12 months will bring. I suspect that this range might be defined by the April low of 4835 as the lower boundary, and the recent highs of 6000 as the upper boundary,” he explained.
Meanwhile, Fabio Bassi, JPMorgan's head of cross-asset strategy, also told CNBC that the S&P 500 could "remain rangebound, with limited short-term upside."
"The rally to our bull case scenario of 5,800 for S&P 500 has played out, but from here we expect a consolidation and range-bound dynamic,” Bassi explained.
Timmer also underscored that if the range-bound market forecast stands true, the cyclical bull market that started in October 2022 may have already ended in February 2025, lasting for 30 months.
He added that “a new modest bear market is now underway,” saying, “Bear markets consist of both a price and time element, and if this one lasts 6-12 months it would meet both conditions.”
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Why It Matters: The S&P 500 has turned positive for the year, up 0.90% on a year-to-date basis. Whereas, it was 3.67% down from its all-time high of 6,147.43 points.
The Nasdaq 100 index, on the other hand, was 3.63% lower from its previous record of 22,222.61 points and up 2.09% on a year-to-date basis.
Dow Jones was still 0.11% lower on a year-to-date basis and 6.06% down from its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Wednesday. The SPY was down 0.18% to $590.09, while the QQQ declined 0.13% to $520.55, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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