JPMorgan Investor Day Looms, Here Are 5 Core Topics To Watch

JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM's May 19 investor day arrives at a pivotal moment for the world's largest bank, with Wall Street watching closely for clarity on management succession and capital strategy as macroeconomic uncertainty clouds the outlook.

Shares of JPMorgan have rebounded 33% since April's lows and now sit within 5% of February's all-time high, highlighting just how critical this event is for investors.

Up 12% year-to-date, JPMorgan has outpaced the broader Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF, which gained just 5.4% in the same period.

In a note Thursday, Bank of America's analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said the stock's premium is "well deserved but raises the bar for near-term outperformance."

He called JPMorgan the best-positioned among peers to manage macro uncertainty and leverage opportunities in AI, digital assets, and private credit.

According to Poonawala, there are the five core themes traders and analysts will watch closely.

See Also: Jamie Dimon Says Recession Is Best-Case Scenario

1. CEO Succession: Will Jamie Dimon Signal a Timeline?

The Street isn't ready for a post-Dimon JPMorgan.

“Obviously, best case for investors could be another five years of CEO Jamie Dimon at the helm,” Poonawala said.

At 69, Jamie Dimon is younger than peers like BlackRock's Larry Fink (72) or Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman (78).

Yet succession chatter is growing. Marianne Lake, CEO of the Consumer Bank, is seen as the frontrunner after COO Jenn Piepszak reportedly stepped back.

Also in the mix is Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of the Corporate and Investment Bank. Both have over two decades at JPMorgan, and the bank's leadership pipeline is widely viewed as deep and capable.

The company could follow either Morgan Stanley's timeline model or Berkshire Hathaway's pre-announcement style, but any news may cause short-term volatility before clarity brings back investor confidence.

2. Capital Deployment: Where Will The $62 Billion Go?

JPMorgan's balance sheet strength is unmatched. It holds $38 billion in capital above regulatory minimums, and with another $24 billion expected by year-end, the war chest could reach $62 billion—on par with the Fed's 2024 stress test losses.

Despite this, management is playing it safe. Buybacks, which have averaged $6 billion per quarter, remain the preferred use of capital. The bank continues to dismiss the idea of special dividends or big-ticket M&A.

"Capital flexibility is a key asset for JPMorgan," said Poonawala, but he indicated that "management has downplayed any meaningful shift in capital deployment strategy," likely sticking with a near-100% capital return ratio through repurchases and dividends.

3. Revenue Outlook: A Net Interest Income Beat in Sight?

With fewer rate cuts now priced in—just two expected for 2025 versus three before—there's room for JPMorgan to raise its $90 billion net interest income forecast. Last year's guidance pegged NII in the mid-$70 billion range.

Capital markets remain a drag. Dealogic data shows JPM's investment banking fees down 24% year-over-year in second quarter, slightly better than the 29% drop for peers. Yet, fee-based businesses like wealth management and payments could cushion the blow.

Poonawala highlighted digital initiatives like Kinexys, JPM's blockchain-powered payments network, as potential long-term tailwinds, especially under a crypto-friendly White House.

4. Expense Discipline: Has Spending Peaked?

After four straight years of expense growth above 7%, JPMorgan may now guide toward a more sustainable 4%-6% range.

Headcount growth is slowing, and tech spending as a share of revenue has declined for two consecutive years.

Importantly, despite elevated costs, the bank still leads peers in efficiency. Management signaled that cost savings would likely come from unit cost improvements, not outright budget cuts.

5. Credit Risk: Consumer Remains Resilient, For Now

With consumer credit in focus, JPMorgan’s card portfolio—17% of total loans—is once again under the microscope. The portfolio has grown 80% since 2015, far above the industry's 65%.

Still, quality remains high. About 86% of JPM card loans go to borrowers with FICO scores above 600, and delinquency rates are low at 2.1%.

Under a moderate stress scenario, management sees a potential 6% EPS hit in 2025. Worst-case losses, using Fed assumptions, could cut profits by half—but JPMorgan is better positioned than most to weather such an outcome.

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