Kevin O'Leary Isn't Worried About A Crash — 'Markets Correct 20% All The Time,' And That's A 'Buying Opportunity' For Smart Investors

"Shark Tank" star Kevin O’Leary isn’t sounding the alarms just yet. In an April 23 LinkedIn post, O’Leary addressed concerns about a looming recession, calling them overblown. “Markets correct 20% all the time,” he said, framing current volatility as business as usual rather than a red flag. 

O’Leary stressed that despite four years of recession predictions, the economy remains stable — and he views the current downturn as a potential “buying opportunity” for smart investors.

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O’Leary Says Recession Fears Are Overstated

In the post, O’Leary challenged ongoing forecasts suggesting a 32% to 55% probability of a U.S. recession. 

He stated, “We’ve been talking about recession now for four years in a row. Forecasters of recession have been wrong for four years straight.” According to O’Leary, the U.S. economy continues to perform solidly despite geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuating projections.

Much of the recent market anxiety, he argued, stems from tariff battles, particularly with China. He believes agreements with countries like the UK, Canada, and Mexico could reach a resolution soon, potentially easing pressures.

Trade Tensions Stir Up New Risks

O'Leary’s focus on trade echoes broader concerns across industries. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen warned in an April 17 X post, “Thousands and then millions of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change.” 

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Technology firms are also feeling the heat. Companies like Alphabet GOOG GOOGL)) posted better-than-expected Q1 earnings amid tariff fears, signaling cautious optimism in the sector. 

For now, the biggest hurdle remains finalizing an agreement with China over intellectual property rights, market access and World Trade Organization policies.

S&P 500 Drops Could Signal Deals

Rather than panicking over recent dips, O’Leary sees an opportunity. On X, he shared that historical data shows the S&P 500 often rebounds after corrections, describing it as “nothing new for the S&P 500” and “a buying opportunity.”

Current valuations may support his outlook. According to YCharts, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 has slipped from 20.48 a year ago to 18.05 in April, suggesting a market pullback could offer discounted entry points for long-term investors.

O’Leary emphasized that the S&P 500’s tradition of bouncing back, with long-term annual returns between 8% and 10%, is likely to continue even amid trade headwinds.

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Institutions Hedge Their Bets

Despite O’Leary’s optimism, some major financial institutions remain cautious. JPMorgan Chase JPM has lifted its U.S. recession probability to 60% in 2025, citing sweeping tariffs by the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board maintained that while trade tensions weigh on growth, the U.S. could avoid a full-blown recession due to strong underlying fundamentals.

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