Progressive's Pain May Turn To Gain As Tariff Inflation Creates A Surprising Tailwind

Over the past three weeks, shares of Progressive Corp PGR have declined by 8%, underperforming the S&P 500 by more than 1,000 basis points, according to BofA Securities.

The Progressive Analyst: Analyst Joshua Shanker upgraded the rating from Neutral to Buy, while raising the price target from $297 to $312.

The Progressive Thesis: Earlier this month, the company announced its March 2025 results, adding a net 572,000 new personal auto customers, representing a month of the highest growth in its history, Shankar said in the upgrade note.

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"It remains to be seen to what degree tariffs will be implemented by the Trump administration, creating uncertainty," the analyst wrote.

Shankar pointed out that supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods resulted in the steepest auto insurance price hikes in 50 years, boosting profitability and market share gains for Progressive. Similarly tariff-induced inflation may act as "a tailwind to Progressive’s success and PGR stock performance," he further stated.

PGR Price Action: Shares of Progressive had risen by 1.7% to $274.19 at the time of publication on Tuesday.

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