Paul Tudor Jones Predicts Recession, New Market Lows, But His Past Bearish Calls In 2022, 2023 Missed Big Rallies

by Adam Eckert Benzinga Editor

Zinger Key Points

Paul Tudor Jones predicts the U.S. economy is either in or near recession, and that stocks are headed to new lows.
He made nearly identical predictions in 2022 and 2023 before markets staged strong rallies.
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Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the U.S. economy is either in or near recession. He also expects stocks to fall to new lows this year, but he has made similar predictions multiple times in recent years and been wrong.

What To Know: Jones predicted Tuesday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that a recession is nearing if the economy isn’t already in the middle of one.

“I don’t know whether it started now or it started two months ago … But I’m assuming we are going to go into one,” Jones said on the show.

He also predicted that President Donald Trump will ease tariffs on China to around 40% or 50%, from the current average of around 125% for most products.

“I’m sure he’ll dial it back to 50 [percent]. I think that’s kind of in the market right now,” he said.

He indicated that an easing of tariffs on China is already priced in and won’t save the markets from heading to new lows for the year. He believes the damage is already done, suggesting that one could assume 2% to 3% lower growth.

He said that when combined with the Federal Reserve, which is standing firm on rates, it’s a recipe for new lows for broader markets.

“You're probably gonna go to new lows. And then when we’re at new lows, the hard day will start to follow and it’ll probably create the Fed to move, create Trump to move, and we’ll get some kind of reality,” Jones said.

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Why It Matters: Jones is well known for predicting the stock market crash of 1987, known as “Black Monday.” He’s also called for recession and a stock market crash multiple times in recent years and been wrong.

With markets trending down in 2022, he appeared on CNBC and predicted that a recession was coming.

“[Jerome] Powell’s already talked about pain. I take that as a metaphor for recession. And if we go into recession, that has really negative consequences for a variety of assets,” Jones said on Oct. 10, 2022.

As it turned out, October marked the bottom for stocks in 2022 and the S&P 500 ended up racing higher throughout 2023, offering approximately 24% gains for investors who held onto positions. Jones actually used almost identical language in 2022 as he did on Tuesday, noting at the time that he was “assuming we are going to go into” a recession, if we weren’t already in one.

Jones also came on CNBC in October 2023 and predicted that stocks were going to crash because of the threat of nuclear war. He added that we were probably headed into a recession in early 2024. He was wrong about that as well.

“It's a really challenging time to want to be an equity investor and in U.S. stocks right now,” Jones said in October 2023.

October 2023 also marked another low for stocks, with the S&P 500 rallying into year’s end and then returning approximately 23% in 2024.

The SPDR S&P 500 SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, was off the lows for Tuesday’s session, down 0.56% at $560.32 at the time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro.

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