Bill Gates says he's still optimistic about the future—but this time, he brought disclaimers.

In his latest annual The Year Ahead letter, published on GatesNotes last week, the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist laid out what he calls "optimism with footnotes." At the top of those footnotes: artificial intelligence, and the profound impact he believes it's already having on work.

"AI capabilities will allow us to make far more goods and services with less labor," Gates wrote. "We're already starting to see the impact of AI on the job market, and I think this impact will grow over the next five years."

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Gates, who has spent much of the past decade warning the world about pandemics, energy inequality, and now AI disruption, isn't speculating about the distant future. He points to real-world shifts already underway, especially in software development, where AI tools have doubled the productivity of many workers and slashed the cost of producing code. 

While automation in warehouses and customer service is lagging slightly behind, Gates warns those sectors will soon feel the effects as AI improves.

But his most attention-grabbing line may be what comes next: "As AI delivers on its potential, we could reduce the work week or even decide there are some areas we don't want to use AI in."

The idea that society might eventually shorten the work week to absorb labor disruption—without collapsing into mass unemployment—isn't new. But Gates presenting it as a real possibility in the near term signals a growing sense that traditional labor markets won't keep up with AI's pace of change. 

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"Even if the transition takes longer than I expect," he wrote, "we should use 2026 to prepare ourselves for these changes—including which policies will best help spread the wealth and deal with the important role jobs play in our society."

Notably, Gates does not endorse universal basic income or any single redistribution mechanism. Instead, he leaves the path forward open-ended, acknowledging that "different political parties will likely suggest different approaches."

He frames the challenge not as stopping AI, but managing its risks. In a line that echoes his 2015 TED talk about pandemics, Gates warns that one of the greatest near-term dangers isn't job loss or rogue robots—it's bioterrorism. "An even greater risk than a naturally caused pandemic is that a non-government group will use open source AI tools to design a bioterrorism weapon," he wrote, calling for more deliberate global governance around AI's development.

Still, Gates maintains that the upside of AI is enormous. He sees breakthroughs in personalized education, healthcare access, and agricultural innovation that could reduce inequality—if countries are willing to scale solutions beyond the free market. "Always-available, high-quality medical advice will improve medicine by every measure," he wrote, pointing to AI's potential to help patients even in the most remote areas.

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But that future, he says, won't arrive on its own. "Of all the things humans have ever created, AI will change society the most," Gates wrote. "It will help solve many of our current problems while also bringing new challenges very different from past innovations."

As for why he remains hopeful in a time of growing polarization and systemic uncertainty? Gates credits two things: foresight and compassion.

"Our ability to anticipate problems and prepare for them," he wrote, "and our capacity to care about each other… are what give me hope as the year begins."

As AI reshapes the labor market and compresses the demand for human work, some investors are turning to long-term strategies that don't rely on traditional employment or public market cycles.

Platforms like Fundrise offer access to private tech investing—letting individuals back innovation-stage companies before they ever go public. With a minimum investment of just $10, Fundrise allows everyday investors to diversify into a space once limited to institutions, giving them exposure to the kinds of technology firms helping shape the future Gates is describing.

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