After years of elevated inflation, many Americans are still feeling sticker shock at the grocery store. Food costs continue creeping higher, even as overall inflation has eased from its peak. Now, the Trump administration is turning to tariff exemptions in hopes of slowing the pressure on household budgets.
Tariff Rollbacks Target Everyday Staples
The White House last Friday announced a rollback of tariffs on more than 200 food products — including coffee, beef, bananas, tomatoes, and orange juice. The exemptions took effect retroactively and represent a significant shift in an administration that previously defended broad import duties as a tool for economic security.
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Aboard Air Force One on Friday, President Donald Trump said that tariffs "may in some cases" raise prices, though he continues to insist that the U.S. has "virtually no inflation," according to media reports.
Industry groups welcomed the changes. The FMI–Food Industry Association told Reuters the move should help consumers and manufacturers, stating that items like coffee play a major role in everyday purchasing and food production supply chains.
Why the Impact May Be Limited — At Least for Now
Even with these rollbacks, experts say the effect on grocery bills may be modest in the near term. Imported food represents only about 10% of what Americans consume, and the tariff cuts could be "practically a rounding error" for inflation, Oxford Economics economist Bernard Yaros told Fortune. But Yaros said that food costs carry outsized psychological weight for consumers, especially prices for meat, poultry, and eggs.
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And those prices have been climbing. Ground beef was nearly 13% more expensive in September, with steaks up almost 17% from the year before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Coffee prices have also surged, rising nearly 19% in the past year.
Political Pressure Ahead of 2026
The tariff adjustments also come as affordability becomes a key political issue. Republicans suffered surprising losses in off-year elections earlier this month, with voters citing high food prices as a major concern, according to media reports.
The latest rollbacks could signal even broader tariff relief as the 2026 midterms approach, Fortune reports. Yaros told the outlet that he expects Trump may expand exemptions to more products as the election season draws nearer.
The administration has also been accelerating trade negotiations. New agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador are expected to eliminate tariffs on certain imports, according to the New York Times. Talks with Switzerland, India, and Taiwan are also advancing.
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Will These Moves Lower Prices? Economists Are Split
Not all experts agree that cutting tariffs will meaningfully reduce grocery costs. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, tariffs historically reduce inflation by slowing economic activity — a result that runs counter to traditional economic models.
Meanwhile, high prices remain a political challenge. Consumer confidence fell to near-record lows this fall, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, reflecting ongoing anxiety about affordability.
What Comes Next
The White House has not confirmed how far future exemptions might go. But with food prices still rising and voter frustration building, tariff policy is likely to remain in the spotlight. For now, Americans may see some relief on select items — though broader changes to grocery bills may take more time to materialize.
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