'Things Will Become Scarce During The Big Summer Holidays' – What Experts Say Is Coming With 8 Weeks Of Supply Left

Shoppers could soon find empty shelves just as summer kicks into high gear. Retailers are facing dwindling inventories, with only 6–8 weeks of supply left, according to the Washington Post.

"Things will become scarce during the big summer holidays," Rita McGrath, a management professor at Columbia Business School, told the New York Post in an interview last month.  

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Tariffs Set Off Shipping Freefall

In late April, importers scrambled to get goods into the country ahead of new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump's administration. 

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On April 2, Trump announced a 54% tariff targeting Chinese imports, before sharply increasing it to 145% on April 9. The short 90-day delay in implementation was granted to key trading partners—including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union—but not to China—putting major pressure on American importers relying on Chinese goods.

According to Vizion, an API-based shipment tracking platform, bookings from China to the U.S. fell by 44.49% year-over-year for the week of April 14. This sudden decrease has resulted in numerous “blank sailings,” where scheduled cargo ships are canceled due to lack of demand.

Small Retailers Brace For Inventory Crunch

Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation,  said in an April 9 statement that small- and medium-sized retailers would be the first to face inventory shortages. "Small businesses, in particular, could be hit hardest as tariffs continue rattling global supply chains," he said.

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Descartes, a provider of logistics and supply chain management solutions, reported in March, that China accounted for 32% of U.S. container imports, with top categories including furniture, plastics, and bedding. China’s share in July was 40%, with consumer-oriented goods like furniture and plastics leading the imports.

Up to 80% of businesses that rely on Chinese imports could face bankruptcy under the new tariff structure, warned Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen during an appearance on "The Prof G Pod" with Scott Galloway.

Blank Sailings Surge As Imports Stall

Shipping companies are slashing departures. The Journal of Commerce reported on April 21 that blank sailings were set to spike as orders dry up. Freight company HLS Group also logged at least 80 canceled sailings from China.

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Shoppers Could See Shortages Soon

The ripple effects may be felt quickly. The New York Post reported McGrath predicted shortages could surface within weeks for goods that cannot be stockpiled, like seasonal products. 

In a February interview with Logistics Management, Anne Reinke, president of the Intermodal Association of North America, warned that while recent tariff reprieves may ease pressure temporarily, they won’t prevent looming supply disruptions across the intermodal network.

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