Coinbase Institutional Says Several Signs Point To 'Crypto Winter' But Remains Optimistic About H2 2025

• Coinbase Institutional has suggested that the cryptocurrency market is at the start of a bearish cycle.
• Bitcoin and major altcoins have fallen below a key technical level.
• Coinbase Institutional does not expect the cryptocurrency bear market cycle to last long.

Amid declining prices and growing market uncertainty over the past few months, the burning question on the minds of several cryptocurrency market participants has been: Is the bull market cycle over?

Coinbase Institutional, the institution-facing arm of the leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, is the latest to attempt to answer the question. The answer? Probably, especially in the short term.

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‘Crypto Winter'

“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter,'” Coinbase Institutional Global Head of Research David Duong asserted in a Tuesday note.

Crypto winter is an extended bear market phase characterized by falling prices, low volumes, and negative market sentiment.

Amid market uncertainty sparked by the U.S.-led trade war, Duong argues that Bitcoin has been trading in bear market territory since late March and altcoins, specifically the top 50 coins per market cap, since the end of February, citing the 200-day moving average.

The moving average is a technical indicator traders often rely on to cut through the noise from market fluctuations and identify the underlying trend. The 200DMA, in particular, is widely believed to indicate long-term market trends. If an asset’s price is above the indicator, it is considered to be in a bull market and vice versa.

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Bitcoin fell below the 200DMA on March 9 and has failed to hold above since.

Beyond the 200DMA, Duong highlighted significant declines in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and venture capital funding as further evidence that cryptocurrencies were in a bear market cycle.

Specifically, he noted that the total crypto market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin, stood at $950 billion, down 41% from a December 2024 high of $1.6 trillion and 17% year-on-year.

At the same time, according to the analyst, venture capital funding in the cryptocurrency space remains over 50% below the levels observed during the height of the 2021-2022 cycle, suggesting reduced fresh capital inflows, especially for altcoins.

But Duong remains optimistic that the current cryptocurrency bear market trajectory may not last long. 

“We still believe that crypto prices may be able to find their floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25,” he wrote.

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Improved Global Liquidity

Speaking to Benzinga about why Coinbase Institutional is anticipating a Q3 market recovery, Duong explained that he expects global liquidity to recover in late Q2, helped by anticipated lower borrowing costs from interest rate reductions. At the same time, he asserted that secular trends like AI were likely to sustain long-term growth.

“Thus, we think it’s possible that this quarter may represent the low for crypto prices in 2025 – barring any major paradigm shifts – as tax cuts, deregulation and other stimulative fiscal policies may yet materialize later this year. That would also enable some of positive [sic] crypto regulatory developments to support markets,” he submitted.

The positive cryptocurrency regulatory developments referenced by Duong likely refer to the less combative approach regulators have taken to the sector under President Donald Trump and the push to pass pro-cryptocurrency regulation before year-end.

Citing similar factors, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently contended that Bitcoin still had the potential to surge to a new price record of $250,000 this year. At the time of writing, however, the asset is struggling to hold above the $85,000 price point.

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