Trump's Tariffs May Be Driving Away Tourists — Along With $9 Billion in Spending

International tourism to the U.S. is taking a hit — and analysts say it may be tied to the Trump administration's recent tariffs and political rhetoric. A new forecast from Tourism Economics predicts a 9.4% drop in total international visitors this year, nearly doubling the previous forecast of a 5% decline made just weeks earlier.

At the start of the year, travel experts had expected a rebound. After a strong 2024 — which saw a 9.1% increase in foreign tourism — the outlook was optimistic. But that has shifted quickly.

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"With each policy development, each rhetorical missive, we're just seeing unforced error after unforced error in the administration," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics.

Now, instead of growth, the industry is bracing for a potential loss of $9 billion in international spending.

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Canadian Tourism Falls Sharply

One of the most dramatic declines is in travel from Canada. Tourism Economics estimates a 20% drop in Canadian visitors to the U.S. this year. The U.S. Travel Association warned earlier that even a 10% drop could result in 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost revenue, and 14,000 fewer jobs.

That downturn is already showing in flight data. According to Travel Weekly, aviation analytics firm OAG found that advanced bookings from Canada to the U.S. this summer are down more than 70% from May through September.

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States that typically see a lot of Canadian visitors — like New York, Michigan, Florida, and California — could feel the effects most directly.

Tensions Extend Beyond Canada

While Canada represents a major share of the decline, it’s not the only country pulling back. High-profile incidents at U.S. borders involving European tourists and tensions with countries like Greenland and Ukraine have also contributed to a chill in global sentiment toward visiting the U.S.

The U.S. Tour Operators Association said in a recent email to members that new tariffs could be hurting the country's image abroad. USTOA President Terry Dale said that the tariffs may raise prices on travel-related goods and services — such as hotel supplies, food, and imported beverages — which could, in turn, raise costs for both travelers and the businesses that serve them.

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The Broader Economic Impact

Beyond tourism, higher tariffs could weaken consumers' purchasing power overall, according to Elevate, the government affairs firm for USTOA. That could lead to fewer discretionary purchases — including vacations — for both domestic and international travelers.

And while it's still too soon to measure the long-term effects, the travel sector is already sounding the alarm. In a recent Travel Weekly survey, 52% of travel advisors said they were very concerned about how federal policy changes could affect their business. More than half said their clients were worried about rising anti-American sentiment abroad.

With billions in potential losses on the line, the tourism industry is keeping a close eye on the ripple effects of current policies — and hoping the market finds its footing before the summer travel season peaks.

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