In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson on X, presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy spotlighted concerns about an impending U.S. recession in 2024, leaning heavily on historical indicators.
What Happened: Central to his argument was the inverted yield curve, where interest rates on short-term bonds eclipse those on their long-term counterparts.
Most investors know that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is considered a potent barometer for the U.S. business cycle. An upward-sloping curve — where longer-term rates exceed shorter-term ones — generally precedes economic expansion. The rarer inversion signals possible recessions, historically within 10 to 13 months.
With the last inversion recorded in October 2022, Ramaswamy's predictions align with a recession’s onset by early 2024. It's worth noting that every U.S. recession since the late 1960s was shadowed by a yield curve inversion — and no recessions materialized without a preceding inversion.
He also stressed the current labor market’s condition where job vacancies double the number of job seekers and inflation's cumulative impact. Goods, he pointed out, are still 16%-20% more expensive than in 2020, without corresponding wage hikes.
Odds of a recession by mid-2024 are now pegged at 59%, marking a retreat from the 64% odds projected in March 2023.
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Who Is Behind The Prediction? Ramaswamy’s monetary trajectory is notable in the biotech space. His 2016 IPO of Myovant Sciences ranked among the biggest of the year, Benzinga previously reported.
He also founded Roivant Sciences ROIVW, which went public via a SPAC merger in 2021. Besides biotech, his portfolio includes a stint as a hedge funder and as co-founder and Xhairman of Strive Asset Management.
Political Landscape: Recent polls by Emerson College indicate a tie in GOP voter support between him and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 10%. Both trail behind former President Donald Trump’s dominating 56%.
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