Arm Holdings Posts Record Q4 Revenues, Q1 Guidance Lower As 'Indirect Tariff Impacts Loom': Analysts Cut Price Targets

Zinger Key Points

Arm Holdings PLC ARM shares tanked in early trading on Thursday, after the company on Wednesday reported its fiscal fourth-quarter results.

The announcement came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Arm Holdings

Analyst John Vinh maintained an Overweight rating, while reducing the price target from $195 to $175.

Arm Holdings reported its quarterly revenues and earnings at $1.24 billion and 55 cents per share, beating consensus estimates of $1.23 billion and 52 cents per share, Vinh said in a note. Management guided to fiscal first-quarter revenues at $1.05 billion at the midpoint and earnings of 34 cents per share, below consensus estimates of $1.10 billion and 42 cents per share, as "indirect tariff impacts loom," he added.

While the company's fiscal fourth-quarter results were supported by better-than-expected royalties, 10%-20% of these royalties are derived from shipments into the U.S., the analyst stated. In the absence of a tariff deal, "there are likely headwinds across consumer exposed end-markets including smartphones, CE, networking, and IoT," he further wrote.

BofA Securities On Arm Holdings

Analyst Vivek Arya reaffirmed a Buy rating, while cutting the price target from $144 to $135.

The company's quarterly results were boosted by healthy licensing growth of 20%, continued royalty rate expansion on v9/CSS adoption as well as data center adoption and market share gains, Arya said.

Arm Holdings did not provide full-year guidance, "citing delays in deal closures and uncertainty in end-demand due to evolving global tariffs," the analyst wrote. He expects the company's sales to grow 17%-18% to around $4.7 billion, about 5% below consensus of $4.93 billion.

Guggenheim Securities On Arm Holdings

Analyst John DiFucci reiterated a Buy rating, while trimming the price target from $180 to $147.

Arm Holdings' results were mixed for the quarter, with better-than-expected Royalty revenues and disappointing License revenues, DiFucci said. The company surpassed earnings estimates due to lower operating expenses, he added.

Management guided to fiscal first-quarter total revenue below consensus and did not issue full-year guidance, the analyst stated. "Arm does not expect to be impacted directly by tariffs, but noted that the indirect impact via the end-markets it serves is more uncertain," he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

JPMorgan On Arm Holdings

Analyst Harlan Sur maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $175 to $150.

Penetration of v9 penetration, the latest version of Arm Holdings' CPU architecture that supports AI, Internet of Things (IoT) and specialized computing, re-accelerated to 30% of royalty revenues in the March quarter, Sur said.

The company's total backlog exiting the fiscal year declined by 10%, the analyst stated. "We do acknowledge that the team does continue to have a strong focus on more system level/software/AI initiatives, which will be future differentiators on product performance," he further wrote.

Rosenblatt Securities On Arm Holdings

Analyst Kevin Cassidy reaffirmed a Buy rating, while reducing the price target from $203 to $180.

Arm Holdings delivered record total revenues, backed by record revenues for both Licensing and Royalties, Cassidy said. ACV (annualized contract value) grew 15% year-on-year, "above the long-term expectation for mid-to-high single-digit percent growth," he added.

The company is increasing its investments into new technologies, which pushes operating expenses above consensus, leading to the earnings guidance miss, the analyst stated. "In our view, with the AI market changes accelerating and TAM expanding, Arm cannot sit on its laurels," he further wrote.

Needham On Arm Holdings

Analyst Charles Shi reiterated a Hold rating on the stock.

Arm Holdings' quarterly results were solid, although its fiscal first-quarter guidance came in slightly below the Street, Shi said in a note.

While not providing full-year guidance, the company "soft-guided its royalty and licensing segment revenue profile, which leads us to believe the company still maintains the view that FY26 will be a 20% growth year despite the macro uncertainties," the analyst wrote. However, the company guided to "a significant step up" in operating expenses in the fiscal first quarter, with modest increases through the year, "which could lead to some margin compression," he added.

Benchmark On Arm Holdings

Analyst Cody Acree reiterated a Hold rating on the stock.

Arm Holdings reported record revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter, with quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time, Acree said. The company earned record licensing and royalty revenues, he added.

For fiscal 2025, Arm Holdings' revenues exceeded $4 billion, with royalty revenues surpassing $2 billion for the first time, the analyst stated.

"While we understand the company's sequentially soft license outlook, which is expected to be down about 28% Q/Q, following the high value Malaysian deal in Q4, and its expected 2% Q/Q decrease in royalties, likely driven by seasonally softer volumes in smartphones, we believe investors will need time to fully consider the details of this report, with the company's shares likely lacking a material positive catalyst for at least the short-term," he further wrote.

ARM Price Action: Shares of Arm Holdings had declined by 5.19% to $117.75 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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Read More:  
ARM Says Tariffs Can’t Touch Its Business As AI Boom Fuels Record Revenue: ‘Can’t Run AI Without ARM,’ CEO Rene Haas Says

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Got Questions? Ask
Which tech companies may face indirect tariff impacts?
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What investments are smart given Arm's guidance?
Which royalty-based stocks are worth considering now?
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