Apple Drops 7% On Weak Guidance, But Technical Risk Still Remains

Apple Inc. AAPL was trading 7 percent lower Friday afternoon after posting earnings that beat Wall Street expectations. We believe this downside risk will continue in the coming weeks, before the stock resumes its upward trend.

The consumer electronics company reported earnings per share of $2.91 and total revenue of $62.9 billion, above analyst estimates of $2.78 and $61.5 billion. However, it’s guidance for its first quarter of $89-93 billion fell on the low side of the $92.9 billion consensus.

CEO Tim Cook pointed out that the rising dollar may affect demand in emerging markets such as India. The rupee is down 12 percent versus the dollar over the last 12 months, which has made imported products more expensive.

Our approach to analyzing stocks and futures focuses on market cycles. In reviewing Apple shares, we can see that the stock is in the declining phase of its current cycle. As the cycle still has a few weeks to go, our projection is around $200, which defines the bottom of our support zone. Our intermediate and long-term views are positive.

Apple Stock Chart With Weekly Bars