With the results of Super Tuesday setting up a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump for a second time, a new poll this week suggested the possibility of a dead heat in the 2024 general election.
What Happened: Biden and Trump received 45% support each when voters were asked to pick between the two in a hypothetic matchup for the 2024 election, the results of Emerson College Polling’s national survey showed. The poll was conducted between March 5 and March 6, and collected responses from 1,350 registered voters. The margin of error was +/-2.6 percentage points.
Ten percent of voters said they are undecided. Since September 2023, Biden has trailed Trump, with four percentage points separating both late last year.
When those undecided were probed further as to whom among the two they would lean toward, 63% picked Biden and 37% were inclined toward Trump. When including voters based on their preferences, Biden leads Trump by 51% to 49%.
The task before Biden is cut out. He has to sway these voters from their indecisive stances to move decisively in his favor. The president’s State of Union address appears to be a step in the right direction. A CNN poll found that six in 10 of the viewers of the address had a positive reaction to his speech.
Among the other key findings from Emerson’s survey was that Biden resonates better with those under 30 years old.
“Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Voters who backed former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the Republican primary favor Biden over Trump by a margin of 63% to 27%, with 10% saying they are undecided.
Trump has the edge among independent voters and those who did not vote in 2020. Forty-two percent of independent voters back Trump compared to 39% who said they support Biden, with 19% undecided.
Those who did not vote in 2020 prefer Trump over Biden by a 46% to 17% margin, with 36% undecided.
Vote Against Trump: Most Biden voters support him because they dislike Trump (30%). Other reasons for the support include their liking for him (26%), their caring about an issue (17%) and party affiliation (17%).
Trump voters, meanwhile, have a strong liking for the former president. Thirty-three percent support him because they like him, 31% because they care about an issue, 15% because of party affiliation and 13% because of their dislike for Biden.
In a race including independent candidates, 43% back Trump compared to 42% for Biden, 6% for Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% for Cornel West and 1% for Green Party’s Jill Stein. Seven percent said they are undecided.
“This race is well within the poll's margin of error and could move in either direction. When undecided voters are pushed in the head-to-head matchup, Biden gains a two-point lead; however, when third-party candidates are factored in, Trump has nearly a two-point edge,” said Kimball.
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