Crunch Time For The Dollar: Major Macro Data On The Horizon!

A series of economic data is scheduled for release tomorrow morning EST providing insights into the current state of the consumer and manufacturing industries. Retail sales in the US have been showing a slight uptrend, unexpectedly rising 0.3% month-over-month in May, surpassing prior forecasts of a 0.1% decline. This data signals the resilience of consumer spending despite higher inflation and interest rates. Notably, sales of building materials and garden equipment increased by 2.2%, while motor vehicles and parts sales rose by 1.4%.

Industrial production figures are also due for release, reflecting data from the prior month. In May, industrial production decreased by 0.2% from the previous month, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase. The decline in mining output was primarily driven by decreases in coal mining and support activities, particularly oil and gas well drilling. Additionally, the output of utilities declined for the second consecutive month, with electric utilities falling while natural gas utilities remained unchanged. On the positive side, manufacturing activity increased by 0.1% as expected, with aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment contributing the most significant gain.

These three economic reports are expected to be released simultaneously, indicating that overall retail and business economic activity remains resilient. However, they may also signal to the Federal Reserve the potential impact of further interest rate hikes on both consumers and businesses.

In addition to the economic releases, two FOMC members are slated to give speeches in the morning. They will share their views on further interest rate hikes and their outlook for the US economy moving forward.

From a technical standpoint, the DXY (US Dollar Index) is currently in a downtrend and approaching the 161.8% Fibonacci extension based on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and pivot point bounce. With the Federal Reserve expected to meet next week and likely increase interest rates, this suggests that the dollar’s decline may be nearing its end for the time being.

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