U.S. producer prices fell more than economists had expected last month in a sign the Federal Reserve's aggressive response to high inflation is starting to take hold.
What To Know: The producer price index (PPI) fell 0.1% in February, according to new data the Labor Department released on Wednesday.
The number was down from a 0.3% increase in January and came in below average economist estimates for a gain of 0.3%.
On a year-over-year basis, PPI came in at 4.6%, well below average estimates of 5.4%.
Excluding volatile food, energy and trade prices, PPI increased 0.2% in February, down from a 0.5% gain in January. The core number came in up 4.4% on a year-over-year basis.
Why It Matters: The SPDR S&P 500 SPY is facing heavy selling pressure Wednesday morning as a result of contagion fears in the banking sector sparked by new developments from Credit Suisse Group CS, but Wednesday's print is likely another sign that the Fed will opt for a less aggressive rate hike at its next meeting later this month.
Chances for a sharp 0.5% hike steadily climbed last week amid the Fed's semiannual Monetary Policy Report and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell before a series of bank runs completely changed market expectations.
Lingering uncertainty surrounding banks tilted projections away from a 0.5% hike earlier this week. The market was pricing in a greater likelihood of a 0.25% increase, but following the Credit Suisse news and a cooler-than-expected PPI print, the market is now tilting toward a pause.
According to CME Group data Wednesday morning, there is a 58.7% chance of a pause at the Fed's next meeting and a 41.3% chance of a 0.25% rate increase. A 0.5% hike is completely off the table. The central bank's next decision on rates is due March 22.
SPY Price Action: The SPY was down 1.11% at $387.42 at the time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro.
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