Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel Says 2023 Recession Odds 'Virtually 100%' If The Fed Doesn't Pivot: Here's What Needs To Happen

Zinger Key Points
  • Jeremy Siegel expects the Fed to raise rates by 0.5% at its upcoming meeting.
  • "I really hope that they really just pause after that," Siegel says.

Wharton Professor of Finance Jeremy Siegel is anticipating a 0.50% rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month, but anything further and a recession is all but guaranteed.

What To Know: Siegel laid out expectations for the Fed's final meeting of the year Tuesday on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

"I do expect the 50 basis points ... I really hope that they really just pause after that," Siegel said. 

The Wharton Professor anticipates that improving price data will steer the Fed away from its 0.75% rate hike course in December. 

He highlighted data from last week showing that the money supply has declined for seven consecutive months, representing the biggest drop since World War II.

"This is a very restrictive policy that if they try to keep this restriction going through next year, a recession is, you know, virtually 100%," Siegel said.

"But I think they're going to pivot once they see the weakness in the data come through."

Check This Out: Wait, What? Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel Says The Housing Market Is Going To Do This

Why It Matters: Siegel has been consistent throughout the year, warning that the Fed is too dependent on lagging inflation indicators.

The Fed issued its fourth straight 0.75% rate hike last month and is gearing up for its final meeting of the year on Dec. 14.

At the central bank's last meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell seemed to suggest the Fed will continue to be aggressive, noting that there is still significant uncertainty around the level of interest rates that will be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to its 2% goal.

"The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done," Powell said.

SPY Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 SPY was down 0.09% at $402.01 at time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro.

Photo: eflon from flickr.

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Posted In: NewsEcon #sEconomicsFederal ReserveCNBCJeremy SiegelJerome Powell
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