Imminent Rate Hike? A Real Recession? Upcoming Jobs Report Makes All The Difference

Zinger Key Points
  • Analysts are expecting a report showing that 250K new jobs were created in July
  • The reporting will give economists a key piece of data needed to form an opinion on if the U.S. is in a recession

On Friday, August 5th, at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the July nonfarm payroll data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The data is a measure of how many jobs were created in the US, excluding farmworkers and a few other job classifications. The data will allow economists to better understand the state of the economy and if the nation is heading for a recession.

The BLS announced a measure of 372,000 for June, which beat analysts estimates of 268,000 but was a decrease from May’s reporting of 390,000. For July, the consensus analyst estimate is that the reporting will show a positive change of 250,000 new jobs.

While many traders and investors believe the economy is in a recession, economists disagree due to the recent strength of the jobs market. Yet if Friday’s reporting shows weakness in the jobs market, then economists may begin to change their views on whether the nation is in a recession.

Also Read: Stock Market Rally Continues Despite Repeated Fed Rate Hike Warnings 

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard appeared as a guest host for CNBC's “Squawk On The Street” Wednesday morning, where he shared his opinion on if the nation is in a recession.

After the show, CNBC shared the following comments from Bullard: “We’re not in a recession right now. We do have these two quarters of negative GDP growth. To some extent, a recession is in the eyes of the beholder… With all the job growth in the first half of the year, it’s hard to say there’s a recession. With a flat unemployment rate at 3.6%, it’s hard to say there’s a recession… The second half of the year should see reasonably strong growth, though job gains probably will slow to their longer-run trend.”

His comments re-affirm that many economists won’t view the U.S. as being in a recession unless the job market starts to slow as well.

Overall, the public will be watching closely at the data when it is released this Friday morning, and the nation may finally get an answer to the question... "Is the U.S. in a Recession?" 

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Posted In: NewsEventsEcon #sEconomicsFederal ReserveJames Bullard
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