Nasdaq 100’s Summer Sweet Spot Is Here - And It Rarely Disappoints The Nasdaq 100’s Summer Sweet Spot Is Here—And It Rarely Disappoints - Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ)

The Nasdaq 100 index is entering a historically bullish summer stretch where it delivered positive returns in 17 of the past 20 years, frequently powering toward record highs and rewarding investors with robust gains.

According to Seasonax data, between June 27 and July 23 – or the nearest trading days to them – the Nasdaq 100 has shown an impressive seasonal edge, climbing in 85% of instances over the past two decades.

One Of Tech's Best Seasonal Trades

From 2005 to 2024, this time window generated a cumulative gain of 4,419 points, or 220.95 points on average each year.

The average return in this 3-week span stands at 4.05%. Since 2005, traders who followed this window have seen 17 gains and just three losses.

The maximum gain was 11.07% in 2016. The worst loss, experienced in 2006, was relatively mild, at negative 2.92%.

Excluding 2024, the Nasdaq 100 recorded 15 consecutive periods of gains in that window.

Even during years with modest gains, the index frequently flirted with record highs. Notably, in seven separate years since 2017, the Nasdaq 100 set multiple record closes during this summer stretch:

2024: 6 record highs between July 2–10
2023: 6 record highs from July 12–19
2021: 8 record highs between June 28 and July 23
2020: 7 record highs from July 2–13
2019: 6 record highs between July 3–24
2018: 4 record highs between July 12–24
2017: 2 record highs between July 19-20

Start Date	Start Price	End Date	End Price	Profit %	Max Rise	Max Drop
27 Jun 2005	1,493.75	25 Jul 2005	1,593.57	+6.68%	+7.30%	-0.22%
27 Jun 2006	1,527.00	24 Jul 2006	1,482.34	-2.92%	+3.88%	-4.92%
27 Jun 2007	1,933.06	23 Jul 2007	2,036.33	+5.34%	+6.20%	-0.07%
27 Jun 2008	1,855.72	23 Jul 2008	1,845.56	-0.55%	+0.84%	-3.11%
29 Jun 2009	1,483.83	23 Jul 2009	1,601.52	+7.93%	+7.93%	-5.33%
28 Jun 2010	1,836.00	23 Jul 2010	1,875.38	+2.14%	+2.14%	-5.86%
27 Jun 2011	2,252.24	25 Jul 2011	2,424.15	+7.63%	+7.87%	0.00%
27 Jun 2012	2,565.53	23 Jul 2012	2,589.93	+0.95%	+3.52%	-1.13%
27 Jun 2013	2,906.84	23 Jul 2013	3,031.40	+4.29%	+6.14%	0.00%
27 Jun 2014	3,844.44	23 Jul 2014	3,986.19	+3.69%	+3.69%	0.00%
29 Jun 2015	4,379.87	23 Jul 2015	4,602.83	+5.09%	+6.85%	-0.65%
27 Jun 2016	4,201.05	25 Jul 2016	4,665.93	+11.07%	+11.07%	0.00%
27 Jun 2017	5,671.60	24 Jul 2017	5,941.37	+4.76%	+4.76%	-1.32%
27 Jun 2018	6,969.67	23 Jul 2018	7,371.78	+5.77%	+6.23%	0.00%
27 Jun 2019	7,657.05	23 Jul 2019	7,954.56	+3.89%	+4.05%	0.00%
29 Jun 2020	9,961.16	23 Jul 2020	10,580.59	+6.22%	+9.95%	0.00%
28 Jun 2021	14,524.98	23 Jul 2021	15,111.79	+4.04%	+4.04%	0.00%
27 Jun 2022	12,008.24	25 Jul 2022	12,328.41	+2.67%	+5.09%	-4.20%
27 Jun 2023	14,945.91	24 Jul 2023	15,448.02	+3.36%	+5.99%	-0.04%
27 Jun 2024	19,789.03	23 Jul 2024	19,754.34	-0.18%	+4.48%	-1.35%

Will 2025 Deliver Another Nasdaq Summer Breakout?

After suffering a steep 25% drawdown from its February record to the April 7 bottom, the Nasdaq 100—tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ—has staged a notable comeback.

As of June 24, the index trades at 22,000 points, just 1% shy of its all-time high of 22,222 set on February 19, 2025.

This 33% rebound from tariff-induced lows in barely over two months has reestablished bullish momentum and officially placed the Nasdaq 100 back in bull market territory.

Technically, the recovery gained further credibility with the golden cross signal: on June 24, the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average, a classic marker of upward trend strength.

The seasonal tailwind entering late June only adds fuel to the rally narrative. With historical data showing an 85% win rate between June 27 and July 23, the current setup positions the index for a potential retest—and possible breakout—of its all-time high.

However, valuations are rising and risks are building.

The Nasdaq 100 now trades at 28 times forward 12-month earnings, a full one standard deviation above its 10-year average of 22. While not at euphoric levels, this valuation is stretching, particularly as economic headwinds and trade tensions persist.

Read now: