CrowdStrike: Why Investors Should Stay Cautious

CrowdStrike (CRWD) is currently in its 8th Phase of the 18-Phase Adhishthana Cycle on the weekly charts. While the stock appears bullish on the surface, a closer look at its structure suggests some of these recent gains could be deceptive. Here is why investors should stay cautious.

CrowdStrike’s Alignment So Far

On the weekly charts, Crowdstrike has maintained an 85.71% alignment with the Adhishthana Principles, our proprietary framework that forecasts stock behavior through cyclical analysis, incorporating both quantitative signals and behavioral archetypes. 

Two Key Structural Elements to Watch

1. Phase 6: Level of Nirvana

In its 6th Phase, CrowdStrike established its Level of Nirvana at 286.11. This level now acts as a valuation anchor for future phases. During bearish phases, prices tend to gravitate toward this level, making it a critical reference point.

2. Phase 4-8 Cakra Formation

CrowdStrike is currently completing its Cakra — a curved bullish channel spanning Phases 4 through 8. According to the principles, this channel is expected to guide price movement until the end of Phase 8.

Why CrowdStrike’s Current Bullishness May Not Hold

CrowdStrike is currently in its 8th phase and has been respecting the Cakra, trading within a curved bullish channel. Based on its historical alignment with the Adhishthana Principles, a breakout above the Cakra during Phase 8 is highly unlikely. According to the principles, such a breakout should ideally occur in Phase 9.

There are rare instances when a stock breaks out early in Phase 8, but these moves often act as warning signs rather than sustainable rallies. Here is a quote from my book explaining this scenario;

“If the Cākra is broken to the upside before the completion of the cycle, the forces attract it to the Nirvana level as plotted in the 6th phase. This fall towards the Nirvana can often be brutal as a consequence of taking shortcuts to attain Nirvana.”-Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time and Tragedy

In CrowdStrike's case, Phase 9, the designated phase for a true breakout and supreme move, does not begin until 1 December 2025. Until then, caution is warranted.

Investor Takeaway

CrowdStrike is expected to stay within its bullish Cakra channel until Phase 9 begins. A retest of the lower boundary near the Nirvana level of $286.11 remains likely before any decisive breakout occurs.

Investors currently holding long positions should consider hedging their exposure. New entrants may benefit by waiting for the stock to approach its Nirvana level, offering a more favorable entry point for Phase 9's potential breakout.