Google Could Lose Up To 25% In Market Value If Judge Orders Chrome Divestiture, Barclays Says

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL GOOG could see shares plummet up to 25% if a federal judge orders Google to divest its Chrome browser, according to Barclays analysts, as the tech giant awaits a crucial antitrust remedy decision expected in August.

What Happened: Google and the Department of Justice wrapped up closing arguments Friday in the remedies phase of the landmark antitrust case. DOJ lawyers argued that U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta should force Google to sell Chrome and share search data with rivals while banning exclusivity agreements that secure Google as the default search engine, reported Yahoo Finance.

Barclays analyst Ross Sandler wrote Monday that “the probability of a Chrome divestiture, while low, has increased” following the closing arguments. He identified “well-funded AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic or perhaps Perplexity” as the most likely buyers for Chrome.

Such an outcome would represent “a major blow” to Google, given Chrome’s 4 billion users and contribution of 35% to Google’s search revenue, Sandler noted. The analyst called it a potential “black swan event” that would cause shares to “trade off significantly.”

Why It Matters: Chrome’s general manager, Parisa Tabriz, testified that the browser’s heavy reliance on Google’s infrastructure makes divestiture difficult. “Chrome today represents 17 years of collaboration between the Chrome people and the rest of Google,” she said. “I don’t think it could be recreated.”

The potential Chrome divestiture stems from Judge Mehta’s August ruling that Google illegally monopolized search markets. A forced sale would not only trigger the 15-25% stock decline but could result in a 30% hit to Alphabet’s earnings per share, according to Sandler.

Alphabet reported strong first-quarter results with revenue of $90.23 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Google Search generated $50.7 billion in revenue. Judge Mehta’s remedy decision is expected in August, with Google planning to appeal any adverse ruling.

Alphabet has a market capitalization of $2.06 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.15. On Monday, Class A shares closed at $169.03, while Class C shares ended at $170.37.

GOOGL shows a positive short-term price trend but faces a negative trend over the medium to long term. According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, the stock has modest valuation and momentum overall, though it shows strengthening short-term momentum. Click here to see the full stock breakdown.