Novo Nordisk's High Risk/Reward Proposition: 129% Rally Or 65% Drop?

Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B) has entered the 18th and final phase of its long-term Weekly Adhishthana Cycle, marking a potentially transformative period. While the weekly charts point to a possible Nirvana, which represents the highest price of the stock throughout its 18 phases, there are conflicting signals coming from the monthly charts as well as the company's NYSE ADR NVO.

Where Is Novo in the Adhishthana Cycle?

On May 12, 2025, Novo Nordisk (OMXCOP) entered Phase 18 of its Adhishthana Cycle, which began on December 23, 2013. Since then, the stock has shown an 88.5% alignment with the Adhishthana Principles on the weekly timeframe. Phase 18 is expected to run until November 8, 2026.

Understanding the Guna Triads

The trajectory of Phase 18 is influenced by the structure of Phases 14, 15, and 16, which I refer to as the ‘Guna Triads.' In Novo's case, the stock showed bullishness in Phases 14 and 15, and in Phase 16, it initially rallied and then corrected. The characteristics of these triads are illustrated in the figure below.

In the case of an SSR formation (Satoguna–Satoguna–Rajoguna), the chances of the stock attaining its Nirvana increase significantly, and there is little to no chance of the typical initial decline that often marks the start of Phase 18.

However, the monthly cycle and the NYSE ADRs tell a different story.

Monthly Charts: A Counterpoint

On the monthly charts, Novo is currently in Phase 11, which typically produces a peak followed by a correction. This is consistent with the complete ‘Himalayan Formation' in line with the Adhishthana Principles. This also explains the stock's pullback since July 2024. However, the correction may not be complete.

According to the Principles, a true Phase 11 descent completes when the stock retraces to the point of the ascent's origin, which generally is Phase 9 or 10 low. This would be roughly around DKK 150, which is approximately 65 percent below current levels.

This presents a critical divergence:

• Weekly Chart: Signals an incoming Nirvana move by November 2026
  
• Monthly Chart: Suggests the current peak may still be forming, with the full descent yet to play out
  

This could mean that the present correction in reference to the monthly charts is not a terminal decline but part of a broader Himalayan formation (ascent) on the monthly cycle.

Also worth noting, the alignment on the monthly charts is only around 60-65%, which is significantly lower than the 88.5% alignment on the weekly charts. This reduces confidence in the monthly signals at this stage.

Final Conclusion

Novo Nordisk's Phase 18 Nirvana target on the weekly chart stands nearly 129% above current levels, suggesting explosive potential. However, the conflict between the weekly and monthly cycles introduces a high-risk, high-reward dynamic.

While some of our clients have increased exposure as Novo enters its final phase, the conflicting signals call for caution. The stock is uniquely positioned, technically bullish on one timeframe but structurally unresolved on another.

In sum, Novo Nordisk is at a pivotal juncture. The Nirvana move may still play out, but it is best suited for institutional money and high-risk investors. Individual desks should consider using proper hedging strategies, as the monthly and weekly cycles remain in conflict, potentially triggering a ‘death move’ for Novo as it begins its 18th Phase.