The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude spot price, as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), hovered below $80 a barrel on Monday, remaining relatively stable despite significant geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Indeed, natural gas prices have experienced a substantial increase, although for different reasons. Henry Hub front-month futures for June delivery, as closely followed by the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG), surged by over 4% to $2.64/MMBTu, marking the highest level since Jan. 19, 2024.
The price has escalated by 40% since the beginning of May, making it the strongest monthly performance for natural gas since July 2022.
Chart: US Natural Gas Eyes Best Monthly Performance In Nearly Two Years
Latest Geopolitical Events In Middle East
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has requested arrest warrants for top Israeli officials, including President Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as three senior Hamas leaders, a move that could potentially escalate tensions in the already volatile region.
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian died in a helicopter crash near the Iran-Azerbaijan border on Sunday. In response, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president and Ali Bagheri as acting foreign minister. Bagheri is known for his close ties to Iran's ultraconservatives, which could influence the country’s foreign policy direction.
Independent aviation analyst Alex Macheras told Al Jazeera that decades-long sanctions on Iran might have contributed to the helicopter crash, given the age and condition of Iran’s aviation fleet. The helicopter, a Bell 212, was manufactured in the U.S. decades ago and had a capacity of 15 people.
"The helicopter involved was acquired over 40 years ago… Iran is home to the world's oldest commercial aviation fleet. It is a similar scenario to those aircraft that are owned privately," Macheras noted.
Natural Gas Market Dynamics
The surge in natural gas prices can be attributed to several factors.
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