President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” could carry a staggering price tag, top budget analysts have warned.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that the plan would cost roughly $600 billion annually, about twice the amount Trump’s sweeping new tariffs are projected to generate.
Over a decade, that would add about $6 trillion to federal deficits, the organization said.
The Math Is Tight
Even under more limited versions, the math is tight. On a revenue-neutral basis, current tariffs could fund a $2,000 dividend only every other year, starting in 2027. And if the Supreme Court strikes down several of Trump's new tariffs — as lower courts have ruled — it could take seven years to generate enough revenue for a single round of payments.
CRFB’s comments echo similar observations from Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy at Tax Foundation. She said that about 150 million Americans make less than $100,000. Therefore, sending out the checks would require $300 billion.
York added that, as the tariff revenue is projected to raise $217 billion annually, “There would be no leftover tariff revenue.”
Bludgeoning Deficit
Using tariff income for dividends would also prevent those funds from being used to reduce deficits or offset borrowing under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, CRFB’s analysis noted. Under the dividend plan, the national debt could climb to 134% of GDP by 2035, compared with 120% under current law.
The group already expects the U.S. to borrow close to $2 trillion annually over the next decade. It said tariff revenue would be better used to reduce borrowing rather than send cash to households.
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