S&P 500 Trades At Record Highs—And History Says The Best Is Yet To Come (UPDATED)

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect that the S&P 500 surpassed its previous closing high during intraday trading.

The S&P 500 pushed into record territory on Thursday, topping its previous all-time closing high from February 19, as the U.S. stock market continued its rebound.

That's a major comeback considering how things looked just a few months ago.

On April 7, stocks were in a state of panic. Fears over Trump’s tariffs and a potential recession sparked a steep selloff, with the S&P tumbling 21% from its February highs.

However, since then, the market has rebounded by a stunning 27%, driven by easing trade tensions, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and receding recession fears.

Now, investors are turning their attention to what comes next, and if history is any guide, the rally may just be getting started.

A Golden Cross Is Coming: Why It Matters

The S&P 500 – as tracked by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO – is close to flashing what traders call a golden cross.

That's when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average—a sign that momentum is picking up and a new leg higher could be underway.

While it may sound like a niche signal, the golden cross has proven to be a historically reliable indicator of bull markets.

Since World War II, the golden cross signal has appeared 37 times on the S&P 500, and nearly three out of four times, it has led to gains.

A simple strategy of buying the index at the golden cross and selling at the following death cross – when the 50-day crosses below the 200-day average – would have shown:

• Average gain per trade: +14.7%
• Winning ratio: 73% (27 out of 37 trades ended in profit)
• Average trade duration: 565 days

The strongest signal on record occurred in 1994, resulting in a remarkable 120.9% gain over a four-year period.

And looking at more recent history—since 1995—the results still shine.

On average, each trade delivered a 15.5% total return, and 10 out of 13 trades were profitable, for a win rate of 77%.

The strongest performance occurred during the 2012–2015 period, with a 51.4% gain, while the briefest and worst-performing signal resulted in a 4.7% loss over just 21 days in early 2016.

Most recently, the 2023–2025 golden-cross trade posted a solid 30.8% gain.

Golden Cross Strategy On The S&P 500

Will Seasonality Boost US Stocks In July?

Beyond technicals, calendar gains may also help. Seasonal trends show that late June through the end of July has historically been a strong period for the S&P 500.

Analyzing the S&P 500's performance between June 26 and July 31 – or the nearest trading days – over the past 15 years, Seasonax data reveals an average return of +3.46% during this period, with 14 out of 15 years finishing in the green.

The strongest July stretch came in 2016, when the index gained 8.51%. The only loss occurred in 2014, with a modest decline of 1.36%.

In fact, if you had bought the index around June 26 and held it through July 31 for the last 15 years, you would have made money 14 times out of 15.

The average return during that window? 3.46%.

In 2016 and 2020, the index jumped more than 8%. The only time it dropped was in 2014, and even then, the decline was only 1.36%. Most years didn't see big pullbacks either, meaning the risk has been relatively low during this midsummer stretch.

S&P 500 Enters Strong Seasonal Window: More Gains To Come?

So, What's the Bottom Line?

The S&P 500 is breaking records again. A golden cross is forming. And seasonality is in the market's favor.

Nothing in markets is guaranteed—but history suggests the path ahead could be smoother, and maybe even profitable, for those who stay in.

Read Next:

• Nasdaq 100 Hits Record Highs After 30% Rally: History Suggests It’s Not Done Yet

Photo: Shutterstock