Bitcoin to $250K This Year? Why Arthur Hayes' Forecast Aligns With Key On-Chain Metrics

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and prominent crypto influencer, recently made waves by urging that Bitcoin could possibly surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025, more than double its current figure in less than six months. This has been dismissed by some as overly optimistic, yet a growing body of macroeconomic and on-chain data shows his call is not as fanciful as it seems.

The source article is here: https://decrypt.co/323135/money-printing-lift-bitcoin-250k-this-year-arthur-hayes

Independent of this article, there are other macro signals which support this view.

Macro Tailwinds: M2 Money Supply Is Growing Again

One of the most compelling arguments for Hayes’ estimation is in global monetary policy and M2 liquidity supply. Central banks, and the Federal Reserve in particular, have resumed printing money, or M2 liquidity expansion.

Previously, outsized expansions in M2 have coincided with parabolic uptrends in Bitcoin and other hard assets. This parallel relationship between M2 and Bitcoin goes back for many years. As fiat currencies are poised for further debasement, investor demand for decentralized stores of value such as Bitcoin will only increase.

Pi Cycle Top and MVRV Z-Score also flashing Bullish signals

Beyond macro trends, several on-chain metrics support the possibility of a rally:

• Pi Cycle Top Indicator: Historically effective in identifying Bitcoin market cycle tops and bottoms, the Pi Cycle now suggests ample upside space without overheating.

• MVRV Z-Score: This metric shows the difference between market value and realized value remains below historical highs. In the past, there have been significant rallies when the Z-score enters similar zones. Past events and prices are never a guarantee of the future, however BTC has followed a similar pattern for each 4 year cycle.

These indicators are characteristic of a market that has not yet become overextended, providing further confidence in a possible significant upside breakout.

Psychological Barriers and Institutional Accumulation

Bitcoin recently busted through several psychological resistance levels, fueled by ETF inflows and growing institutional acceptance. Big players continue to accumulate, a trend that has in the past preceded large price run-ups. Combined with limited supply and halvings reducing new issuance, demand pressures could add fuel to any uptrend.

For the remainder of 2025

While $250,000 Bitcoin may seem an ambitious market top to some, the intersection of monetary debasement, robust on-chain fundamentals, and institutional demand make for a strong bullish case. Investors would do well to take advantage here.

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The author has a BTC investment.

The featured image is AI generated.