Bitcoin Could Hit $450,000, Raoul Pal Says: 'Don't Screw This Up'

Bitcoin BTC/USD and crypto markets are entering the second leg of what macro expert Raoul Pal calls the "banana zone", a steep, liquidity-driven bull phase.

What Happened: Speaking at the Sui Basecamp at the Token2049 conference in Dubai, Pal remained confident in the uptrend despite volatility, citing Bitcoin's historical bull cycles, such as 2017, which included multiple 27–39% corrections along the way.

"Corrections are normal," Pal said. "You've just gone through a normal one."

Pal sees parallels between the current cycle and the 2017 Trump-era rally: initial macro fear centered around tariffs, dollar strength, and economic slowdown, followed by explosive upside.

He points to recent dollar weakness as a major tailwind. "A weak dollar is incredibly bullish for global growth," he explained, as it lowers debt costs for foreign borrowers and boosts exports.

Also Read: Bitcoin’s Key Level Is $96,500, Analyst Warns, But Here’s What Could Trigger A Breakdown

Why It Matters: Pal's analysis is anchored in his "Everything Code" framework, a macro model that correlates asset prices with global liquidity.

According to him, Bitcoin tracks global liquidity with around 90% accuracy, while the NASDAQ tracks at 95%.

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"Crypto is a supermassive black hole that outperforms and sucks in every other asset," Pal said, noting Bitcoin's 27.5 million percent return since 2012.

He argues this outperformance is why younger investors are drawn to crypto over traditional markets, especially in periods of rising liquidity.

What's Next: Pal outlines three phases in every bull market: Initial breakout, corrective phase (now complete) and banana zone part two, featuring altcoin outperformance.

With financial conditions improving and the business cycle expected to strengthen, Pal projects Bitcoin could climb to $450,000, assuming macro indicators hit forecasted levels.

However, he warns that a 35% correction is still likely within this bull phase, a test of investor discipline that will "shake people out."

"Hold on to your hats. Don't screw this up. Don't lose control of your tokens. Don't use leverage. Don't get your wallets hacked," Pal advised. Despite widespread pessimism in investor surveys, he believes the uptrend will extend into early 2026.

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