Bitcoin's Key Level Is $96,500, Analyst Warns, But Here's What Could Trigger A Breakdown

Bitcoin's BTC/USD rally following its recent death cross has sparked a debate over whether it marks the start of a true breakout or another 2019-style bull trap.

What Happened: In a podcast on May 4, cryptocurrency analyst Cowen warned that Bitcoin’s current pattern closely resembles its 2019 setup.

Back then, BTC surged 42% post-death cross, only to crash to a lower low weeks later.

Cowen emphasizes that unless Bitcoin closes the week above $96,500, the current move could also prove to be a fakeout.

"A weekly close above $96,500 would go a long way in saying", Cowen noted this is not 2019 all over again, referencing how Bitcoin failed to reclaim lost support during its 2019 run-up.

If BTC dips, Cowen identifies the 50-day moving average (~$87,000) as a key level of support — echoing past structure seen in both 2019 and early 2024.

Macro Divergence and Inflation Risk

Bitcoin has decoupled from equities recently, posting an 18% gain in April even as the S&P 500 stayed flat.

Cowen suggests this divergence could strengthen Bitcoin's hedge narrative, but he also flags a potential risk, the upcoming U.S. inflation data due mid-May.

"There's a non-negligible chance the next CPI print is just a big one", thanks to tariffs and recent price spikes, Cowen warned, suggesting it could spark a market-wide risk-off move.

Also Read: Bitcoin Up 25% From Tariff Lows: Here’s The Case For New All-Time Highs Soon

Why It Matters: For investors concerned about potential downside, Cowen maintains a Bitcoin-over-altcoins strategy, especially in uncertain macro environments.

Altcoins, he argues, remain structurally dependent on BTC's success, "If altcoins need Bitcoin to go up first, why hold alts over Bitcoin?" he asked, citing historical dominance trends and consolidation phases in 2023–2025.

He advises investors to stay in Bitcoin as it offers upside potential if the bull case plays out, while also minimizing downside if macro conditions deteriorate.

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