With the 2024 presidential election less than nine months away, crypto bettors are piling into prediction outcome markets about the election.
Several key states are up for grabs in the Republican primary race and could have an impact on a betting market for Donald Trump to win every state in the primary cycle.
What Happened: Trump's dominance in early voting states for the 2024 election primary season led to more candidates dropping out of the race, setting up a showdown with Nikki Haley, the only remaining opposition.
A recent Morning Consult poll shows Trump with a 63-point lead over Haley among nationally registered Republican voters.
Trump has dominated the early states and secured 63 delegates, compared to 17 secured by Haley. In Iowa, Trump had 51% of the vote, compared to 21.2% for DeSantis and 19.1% for Haley. In New Hampshire, Trump won with 54.3% of the vote, while Haley got 43.2% of the vote. Trump also won the Nevada caucus.
On Saturday, voters in South Carolina will head to the polls for the Republican primary. The state remains a key test for Haley, as it is her home state and where she was governor for eight years. A loss in South Carolina could set Haley's campaign up for an even more difficult path and the potential that she doesn't win a single state.
Enter crypto prediction market betting site Polymarket, which calls itself "the world's largest prediction market."
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD or from crypto accounts on Coinbase, Robinhood or PayPal, according to the company's guide.
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option that ends up being the winner.
One of the prediction markets available on Polymarket is "Will Trump win every state in Republican nomination?"
The current market sees Trump with an 87% chance of winning every state in the 2024 primary season, with a listing of 87 cents for yes and 14 cents for no. This means bettors are currently expecting Trump to have a strong shot at winning every state, including the upcoming South Carolina primary.
For this particular betting market, the odds were at 50% back on Jan. 9 and traded between 50% and 70% in December and half of January before climbing up.
Another prediction market on Polymarket shows bettors predicting Trump's margin of victory in South Carolina with the following margins and percent chance of happening based on the bets:
- Greater than 50%: 3% chance
- 40% to 50%: 9%
- 30% to 40%: 34%
- 20% to 30%: 41%
- 10% to 20%: 12%
- Less than 10% or Loss: 3%
The bettors see an 84% chance that Trump wins by at least 20% in the South Carlina primary. Bettors assign only a 3% chance that Trump could lose to Haley in South Carolina or win by less than 10%.
Related Link: Can’t Bet On Trump Or Biden To Win 2024 Election In US? This Crypto Market Could Have You Covered
Why It's Important: A recent Morning Consult poll shows Trump beating Haley 68% to 31%. Recent polls also show Trump beating Haley in key Super Tuesday (March 5) states.
The polls show strong leads for Trump, which right now could make the odds of the former president winning every state likely.
There is also the factor of Haley potentially dropping out of the 2024 election race with a weak showing in South Carolina or on Super Tuesday.
Despite the large deficit in the polls, Haley recently made it clear she plans to stay in the race even if she loses South Carolina.
“South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But on Sunday, I’ll still be running for president. I’m not going anywhere,” Haley said.
Haley recently announced several new campaign stops including two in the swing state of Michigan.
A separate betting market shows only a 15% chance that Haley drops out before Super Tuesday.
Photo: Shutterstock
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