Chile is set for a high-stakes presidential runoff election on Sunday, December 14. The South American nation will choose its next leader and determine direction for one of the largest global commodity producers at a time when the world needs its riches the most.
The two candidates are coming from opposite sides of the political spectrum. On the left is the Communist Party's former labor minister Jeannette Jara, while on the right is the Republican Party founder José Antonio Kast.
Both candidates have pledged to strengthen security and address migration, the two dominant public concerns, yet they diverge sharply on how to revive the key mining sector.
Converging Interests
Copper accounts for roughly 15% of Chile's GDP. It is foundational to the global energy transition, and along with lithium, it has generated most of the country's 2.5% economic growth in 2025.
Yet the industry's centerpiece, state miner Codelco, is struggling. Once a source of national pride and a pillar of fiscal revenue, the firm is now under more than $20 billion in debt, with aging operations and years of underinvestment due to mandatory profit transfers to the state. Output only recently began recovering after plunging to a 25-year low in 2022.
Diverging Solutions
On the left, Jara argues for deeper state involvement in strategic minerals. Her platform includes increasing copper output by 10%, launching a state-owned lithium company, and accelerating production through public-private partnerships.
According to the Atlantic Council, she advocates for renewable energy, stronger environmental oversight, recognition of Indigenous land rights, and stricter ESG requirements.
Jara sees mining as an engine powering Chile's expanded social protection, higher wages, and a more equitable development model. Her focus includes more police resources, biometric border controls and targeted cost-of-living relief.
Meanwhile, Kast, who narrowly lost to Gabriel Boric in 2021, returns as a favored contender. He consolidated the right wing and focused on a law-and-order approach.
Kast promises sweeping austerity, a leaner state, and a trimmed budget from $82 billion to $77 billion. While he offers no detailed mining strategy, he favors greater private-sector participation, partial privatization of Codelco, and incentives to spur investment.
He also promotes lower taxes, deregulation, mass deportations, and a security model inspired by El Salvador's Nayib Bukele—an agenda that appeals to voters exhausted by crime and slow growth.
Global Implications
With copper demand surging by more than 40% by 2040, according to the UNCTAD, any instability in Chile's output could raise prices. Although lithium is far from its 2022 highs, its concentration in the South American "triangle" makes it similarly sensitive to policy shifts.
Since the U.S. is Chile's second-largest source of foreign investments, Washington will pay close attention to Sunday's results.
Most of these investments are concentrated in mining, energy, and data infrastructure.
A Kast victory could bring closer alignment on security, migration, and free-market policies.
At the same time, a Jara presidency would maintain cooperation but inject more caution on regulatory, environmental, and labor fronts. In either scenario, U.S. companies will closely track how the next administration handles permitting, productivity, and Codelco's restructuring.
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