- Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst James Seyffart has weighed in on when the SEC could approve pending spot cryptocurrency ETF applications.
- The regulator is battling a full plate with a flood of applications, baggage from the previous administration and efforts to establish market rules.
- While decisions on spot ETF applications stall, progress is being made elsewhere.
Amid improving regulatory conditions and growing institutional interest, anticipation for the approval of pending spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund applications is understandably high. Among pending applications are products tied to popular altcoins like XRP, Solana and even the leading memecoin Dogecoin.
However, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not appear to be in a hurry to make a decision.
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The SEC pushed back decision deadlines for 21Shares’ planned XRP ETF and Grayscale’s planned XRP and Dogecoin offerings on Tuesday. Before these, the regulator delayed a decision on Grayscale’s planned Solana offering last week.
“SEC delays several decisions today on spot xrp & doge ETFs, along w/ staking in eth ETFs. Nothing to see here IMO. Still think all will be approved,” The ETF Store President Nate Geraci said Tuesday on X.
The question on the minds of many is when?
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A 240-Day Window
According to Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst James Seyffart, approvals for pending spot cryptocurrency ETF applications are likely to come late June or early July at the earliest. But early Q4 is most likely, he said.
“The SEC *typically* takes the full time to respond to a 19b-4 filing,” he said Tuesday on X, referring to the maximum 240-day decision window allotted to applications like these.
“Almost all of these filings have final due dates in October,” he said, adding that early decisions would be “out of the norm.”
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The SEC likely needs this 240-day window more than ever. With its softening stance on cryptocurrencies, fund managers have gone all out to test the limits of what is possible, from applications for products based on popular altcoins to products based on the memecoins launched by President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump. According to a list compiled by Seyffart in April, at least 72 cryptocurrency ETF applications are sitting on the regulator’s desk.
In addition to this deluge of applications, the regulator is battling to clear up “the mess” left by years of cryptocurrency regulation through enforcement while trying to work towards building clear guidelines for the market.
But while decisions on spot ETF applications stall, progress is being made elsewhere.
Futures ETFs Taking Off
Teucrium launched a 2x XRP futures ETF in April. On Thursday, Volatility Shares debuted a standard XRP futures product and a 2x variation. Volatility Shares launched similar products for Solana in March.
These investment vehicles, which allow traders to speculate on the price of an asset without holding it, have historically been easier for the SEC to approve.
JPMorgan analysts predicted in January that XRP ETFs could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in inflows in the first 12 months, while Solana products could attract between $3 billion and $6 billion.
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