Ohio is often seen as a key predictor of electoral success for U.S. presidential elections: the state has voted for the winning candidate in 14 out of the last 15 contests, with 2020 as the exception. A recent special election held in the state could indicate the direction of the 2024 U.S. election.
Election Results: A special election held in Ohio’s 6th congressional district was held on Tuesday to replace outgoing Republican Bill Johnson, who resigned in 2023.
Ohio’s 6th district, located in the eastern part of the state, is predominantly white, uneducated and rural. Democrats have not performed well among these groups here since 2016.
Other Special Elections: Democrats’ overperformance in special elections is not limited to the recent Ohio 6th election. According to Daily Kos Elections, Democrats have outperformed 2020 results by 3.8% in the 58 races held in 2023 and 2024.
Some experts, including statistician Nate Silver, warn against extrapolating special election results to predict the November election. Turnout in special elections, most recently in Ohio’s 6th, has been extremely low. It is typically the most politically engaged voters who participate; in recent years, these voters have broken towards Democrats.
When Trump’s name is not on the ballot, many voters simply stay home. While this might not matter in 2024, Trump is the GOP’s presumptive nominee, it could spell problems for the Republican Party in the future.
Trump will soon turn 78 and is not on midterm ballots (Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms.) When Trump’s political career ends, it could leave a gaping hole in the Republican Party’s appeal to many voters.
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