Trump Vs. Biden: Guilty Verdict Spells Trouble For Former President In 2024 Election Poll, 40% Support Prison Sentence

Zinger Key Points
  • A new 2024 election poll shows a close race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
  • The poll comes after Trump was found guilty on 34 counts in a criminal trial.

In less than five months, voters will head to the polls to pick their preferred candidate in the 2024 presidential election.

Most election polls show a close head-to-head rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

What Happened: For months, Trump and Biden have been the favorites in the race in polls and betting odds from sportsbooks that offer wagering on the election.

A new election poll from Emerson College shows a close race. Here are the results and the results from the previous poll in parentheses:

  • Donald Trump: 46% (46%)
  • Joe Biden: 45% (44%)
  • Undecided: 9% (10%)

When third-party candidates are included in the poll, Trump maintains a larger lead at 44% compared to Biden's 38%. Six percent of respondents select the top third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The poll finds that both Trump and Biden lost support when multiple candidates were included, with Trump dropping from 46% to 44% and Biden decreasing by seven points from 45% to 38%.

When undecided voters were asked which candidate they would vote for in a head-to-head matchup, 50% lean to Trump and 50% lean to Biden.

The overall poll saw Biden gain for a third straight survey from Emerson College, while Trump has maintained 46% in the last four consecutive polls.

Related Link: Trump Vs. Biden: Former President’s Lead Drops To 1 Point, Net Buzz Rating Hits 10-Month Low After Guilty Verdict

Why It's Important: The latest poll from Emerson College comes after Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in a criminal trial alleging the former president falsified business records.

The new poll found that 40% of voters said the conviction has no impact on their vote in the 2024 election. Twenty-seven percent said they were more likely to support Trump after the conviction, with 33% saying they are less likely to support Trump.

"Trump's support in our polling remained the same before and after his conviction," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. "A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51%) and a majority of Republicans (55%) say it makes them more likely to support Trump."

Forty-one percent of Independent voters said the verdict has no impact, with 38% saying they are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.

For undecided voters, 58% said the conviction won't impact their vote with 36% now less likely to vote for Trump and 6% more likely to vote for Trump.

The poll asked respondents what sentence Trump should receive from the criminal trial. Here were the results:

  • Prison time: 40%
  • A Fine: 25%
  • Probation: 15%
  • Unsure: 20%

"Opinion on Trump's sentence varies by party: 67% of Democrats think Trump should serve prison time, while 46% of Republicans think he should pay a fine; 42% of Independents think he should serve prison time, 22% a fine and 14% probation," Kimball added.

While Biden gained support and could gain more votes from those who are less likely to vote for Trump, the current president got poor marks on his current handling of the country in the poll.

Biden has a 37% job approval rating in the latest poll, with 53% disapproving of his current job handling the country.

Fifty-five percent of voters disapprove of Biden's handling of the immigration policy.

The poll found that the economy was the top issue on voters' minds at 42% with immigration ranking second at 15% and threats to democracy at third at 12%.

Read Next: Trump Vs. Biden: New Swing State Poll Reveals Winner, One Key 2024 Election Issue Could Influence Result

Photo: Shutterstock and an image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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Posted In: PoliticsTop Stories2024 electionDonald Trumpelection pollEmerson CollegeJoe BidenRobert F. Kennedy Jr.
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