The current frontrunners to win their respective party's nominations are Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with less than one year before the 2024 presidential election.
Here's a look at how seven key swing states are currently leaning when it comes to picking a president.
What Happened: President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, defeating incumbent Donald Trump.
With the election decided by Electoral College voting, smaller swing states that can vary between leaning Republican or Democrat each year can help decide the outcome of the president race.
For the 2024 election, political analysts and presidential campaigns have centered on seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Here's the latest results from an election poll of registered votes in the swing states done by Morning Consult on behalf of Bloomberg News, with the results from November in parentheses.
Arizona: Biden 42%, Trump 46% (Biden 42%, Trump 46%)
Georgia: Biden 43%, Trump 49% (Biden 41%, Trump 48%)
Michigan: Biden 42%, Trump 46% (Biden 43%, Trump 43%)
Nevada: Biden 44%, Trump 47% (Biden 43%, Trump 46%)
North Carolina: Biden 40%, Trump 49% (Biden 39%, Trump 48%)
Pennsylvania: Biden 44%, Trump 46% (Biden 44%, Trump 47%)
Wisconsin: Biden 41%, Trump 45% (Biden 46%, Trump 47%)
In the December swing state poll, Trump now leads in all seven states, including the state of Michigan which was won by Biden in the October poll and saw a tie in November.
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Why It's Important: The latest poll saw Biden gain support in three states, lose support in two states and have no change in two states. Trump gained support in four states, saw no change in one state and lost support in two states.
While Trump holds a lead in all seven states, he does not have over 50% support in any of the states, suggesting a portion of voters are still mostly undecided who they will vote for one year before the election.
Together, the seven swing states represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Here's a look at the electoral votes for each state and how the states voted in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Arizona: 11 electoral votes, 2016 Republican, 2020: Democratic
Georgia: 16 electoral votes, 2016 Republican, 2020 Democratic
Michigan: 15 electoral votes, 2016 Republican, 2020 Democratic
Nevada: 6 electoral votes, 2016 Democratic, 2020 Democratic
North Carolina: 16 electoral votes, 2016 Republican, 2020 Republican
Pennsylvania: 19 electoral votes, 2016 Republican, 2020 Democratic
Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes, 2016 Republican, 2020 Democratic
The 2020 election saw Biden win six of the seven swing states, with five of the states flipping from Trump to Biden in the election.
Political site 270toWin currently shows five of the seven states undecided based on the consensus of polls and analysts. Michigan is shown as Democratic and North Carolina is shown as Republican. The overall race is shown as 241 votes for the Democrats and 235 for the Republicans with 62 undecided. The winner needs 270 electoral votes to become president.
One major concern for voters in the swing states continues to be inflation and the cost of goods, which could be a negative for Biden since he is the current president during the current tough economic environment for many consumers.
The good news for Biden could be the December poll showing an improvement in the number of voters who said the cost of goods is rising, which could show that inflation is declining.
Benzinga previously shared a report predicting the 2024 election cycle to hit a new record of $10.2 billion in ad spending, up 13% from the 2020 election. The report said the seven swing states could see the heaviest ad spending and makeup 75% of the total spent on the presidential election.
In October, a report said Biden was not happy with the way he was polling in the swing states and his team was ready to increase ad spending.
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Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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