Eli Lilly's May Meltdown Is In History Books — Could June Seasonality Bring A Rebound?

Eli Lilly and Co. LLY is on track to close one of its worst months ever after slashing its full-year profit outlook despite beating first-quarter earnings estimates.

But a glimmer of hope lies ahead, as June historically stands out as the drugmaker's best month of the year.

Shares of Eli Lilly are down 19% in May, pacing for their worst monthly performance since February 2009. However, the underperformance compared to the broader market has been even more severe.

The stock has lagged the S&P 500 Index by 23.8% this month — the steepest relative decline since August 2000 and the second-largest since the company went public in 1970.

Chart: Eli Lilly Suffered One Of Its Worst Months Ever

What Sparked The Selloff?

The sharp move followed the company's May 1 quarterly earnings. While Lilly posted better-than-expected first-quarter results, the stock plunged 12% that day — the worst single-session drop since August 2000.

The decline was triggered by a sharp cut in the company's full-year profit forecast. Eli Lilly cited $1.57 billion in acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) charges, primarily tied to its acquisition of a cancer therapy from Scorpion Therapeutics. While sales guidance remained unchanged, full-year profit expectations were revised downward to reflect those R&D costs.

For 2025, Eli Lilly projects revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion, implying a 32% year-over-year increase.

“Expect volatility, take advantage of moment of weakness, as long as there is not a new, fundamental crack in the story,” said Bank of America analyst Tim Anderson. The firm reaffirmed its 12-month price target of $1,000, suggesting a 38% upside from current levels.

Could June Offer Relief?

While May has battered Lilly shareholders, June has historically brought better fortune. Over the past 30 years, shares have gained an average of 2.94% during the month, according to TradingView data.

June is statistically Eli Lilly's best month, with a 67% chance of closing higher.

Even more notable: the past five Junes have all ended in the green. The best June performance came in 2000 when the stock surged 28.1%. Only two Junes in recent history delivered double-digit losses — in 2001 and 2019, both dropping 10.6%.

There's precedent for a bounce. In 1997 and 2003, Eli Lilly dropped more than 10% in May. In both cases, shares recovered in June with gains of 3.9% and 14.1%, respectively.

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