Market Overview

100 Days Of Trump: Do Oddsmakers Think He'll Make It A Full Term?

100 Days Of Trump: Do Oddsmakers Think He'll Make It A Full Term?

President Donald Trump has survived his first 100 days in office, despite his job approval rating dipping to an all-time low for a U.S. president. And when it comes to Trump completing his first term in office, European gambling site Paddy Power indicates all bets are off.

According to the newest numbers from Paddy Power, the odds of a first-term Trump impeachment have narrowed significantly. While Las Vegas doesn’t allow betting on any events other than sports, U.K. bookies are happy to take bets about Trump’s longevity in office.

Paddy Power currently has the odds of a first-term Trump impeachment at 10/11, up from 2/1 on February 15 and 11/10 on March 21.

Not The Only One

Ladbrokes is also pessimistic about Trump’s prospects. As of March 21, Ladbrokes listed the odds that Trump will “leave office via impeachment or resignation before end of first term” and will “serve a full term” at 11/10, but the site is no longer listing odds on a Trump full term.

Bovada also no longer lists proposition bet odds that Trump completes “a full term as POTUS.” As of March 21, a $115 bet on a full term in office paid off $100, while a $115 bet that the term would be cut short also paid off $100. Bovada is currently taking bets on the year Trump will leave office. A $100 bet on 2017 pays off $350, while a $120 bet on 2020 or later pays off $100.

Following Election Day in November, Ladbrokes listed the odds that Trump would make it through his first term in office at 3/1.

The president certainly can’t be impeached for low approval ratings alone, but the latest numbers from NBC put Trump’s 40 percent job approval after 100 days at the lowest among the past 10 presidents, well below former President Barack Obama’s 61 percent approval in April 2009.

While smart money seems mixed on an early departure for Trump, gamblers aren’t necessarily reliable when it comes to politics. Some of the same U.K. bookies had Hillary Clinton as the heavy favorite to win the election back in November.

U.S. investors certainly don’t seem concerned about potential drama in Washington. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) is up more than 10 percent since Election Day.

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