Gold and silver prices surged this week as investors digested a combustible mix of geopolitics, monetary policy expectations, and long-term fiscal concerns, creating an environment increasingly reflected in precious metals ETFs.
Spot gold jumped above $4,445.8 an ounce on Monday morning. At the same time, silver rallied more than 5%.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump said Washington planned to “run” Venezuela post-Nicolás Maduro, gaining full access to its oil reserves. Analysts suggest the immediate risk of prolonged conflict is limited, but the episode brought back a broader sense of geopolitical uncertainty. This geopolitical uncertainty is the fuel for precious metals that has been smoldering for years.
For ETF investors, however, the bigger story goes well beyond Venezuela. Gold-backed ETFs have been regaining attention after bullion posted its best annual performance since 1979 last year, supported by aggressive central-bank buying, strong ETF inflows, and three consecutive U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets now expect further easing.
The Fed is gearing up for a leadership change; gold ETFs are being treated as long-duration assets rather than mere crisis hedges.
Physically backed funds — SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) — stand to benefit if real yields remain structurally suppressed. Last month, Goldman Sachs projected gold could rally toward $4,900 an ounce, citing rate cuts and upside risks tied to political and fiscal uncertainty. Both funds are up almost 3% on Monday.
Those fiscal risks are becoming harder for markets to ignore. Speaking over the weekend, former Fed chair and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that mounting U.S. federal debt is strengthening the conditions for "fiscal dominance." This is a scenario in which central banks keep rates low to manage government borrowing costs. For gold ETFs, that's essentially a neon sign flashing "tailwind."
Silver ETFs are telling an even louder story. Silver outperformed gold last year and has continued to rally in recent sessions, supported not only by macro and monetary factors but also by concerns that the U.S. administration could impose tariffs on refined silver imports, Bloomberg said.
Funds such as iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) and Aberdeen Physical Silver Shares ETF (NYSE:SIVR) have amplified the metal's sharper, more volatile moves, appealing to investors willing to stomach the bumps. Both ETFs are up almost 6% today morning.
Platinum and palladium ETFs have also caught a bid, though they remain secondary players in what is increasingly emerging as a precious-metals-led bet on a low-rate, high-uncertainty world. For ETF investors, this rally isn't just about fear. It's about duration, debt, and a growing belief that easy money may be harder to unwind than policymakers admit.
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