The $5,000 Gold Setup: Why Mining ETFs May Be The Real Moonshot Trade

The bull chorus for gold is getting louder — and this time, institutional investors are joining the choir.

A new Goldman Sachs survey of more than 900 institutional players found that 36% expect gold to top $5,000 per troy ounce by 2026, while more than 70% see prices rising over the next year.

• GLD is showing positive momentum. See the full story here.

Add forecasts from Ed Yardeni, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bank of America and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon — all calling for $5,000 — and suddenly the metal’s moonshot scenario doesn’t sound like late-night YouTube hype.

Behind this optimism is a potent mix of macro drivers — a record number of central banks buying of 634 metric tons so far this year, a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical stress and two Fed rate cuts that have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold. To some, gold still appears to be the only asset class that looks serene while everything else is running around as if it lost its car keys, even after it recently hit $4,217 per ounce.

While bullion-backed ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) remain the cleanest way to play rising spot prices, the more interesting action may lie elsewhere. If forecasts of $5,000 — or Yardeni’s long-range $10,000 by 2030 — come anywhere close to reality, gold miners could see a solid upside, and ETFs tracking them could deliver multiples of bullion’s gains.

Mining stocks have led gold higher in the major bull cycles to date, courtesy of operational and financial leverage: once the fixed costs are paid for, every incremental dollar in the gold price flows disproportionately into profits. That dynamic positions the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) as beneficiaries of a supercycle. Junior Gold ETFs, in particular, offer torque but tend to shine brightest when gold trends parabolic.

For investors seeking a global spread, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NASDAQ:RING) offers diversified exposure with less dependence on a few mega-miners. And for those adrenaline-loving investors who feel that volatility makes their character stronger, they’ve got the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF (NYSE:NUGT), which offers leveraged exposure to sectorial daily swings.

If the $5,000 gold drumbeat ends up to be more than bravado, miners may end up being the ETF world's most electric trade. Bullion captures the move, but miners may multiply it.

Also Read:

• Barrick Mining Eyes IPO To Unlock Hidden Value In North American Gold Assets

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