XRP Down 4% Again, But ADA Tees Up A Potential 50% Rally

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) dropped 4% on Thursday, but technical analysis shows Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) may be gearing up for a 50% rally.

XRP Faces Rejection As Sellers Defend Resistance

Price Analysis for XRP (Source: TradingView)

XRP continues to struggle against the $2.17 to $2.31 supply region, with each push higher triggering renewed selling. 

Even with the recent rejection, XRP is still hanging onto $2 support, and that is the only reason the chart has not broken down into panic territory. 

That $2 line is not random, as it matches the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and also lines up with the rising little trendline that has been holding XRP together for the past few weeks. 

Whenever the price touches it, buyers quietly appear and defend the level. 

If XRP ever loses $2 cleanly, the chart immediately opens to $1.98 and then $1.81, which is where the lower part of the big channel sits. 

That is the "don't test it" level, because a fall into that zone resets the entire structure back to mid-November bearishness.

Until XRP flips that whole $2.17 to $2.31 area, there is no real trend reversal. 

The next checkpoint above that is $2.42, which is the golden 0.618 Fibonacci level, and then $2.46 to $2.60, which is where liquidity gets heavy and where short sellers love to reload.

Momentum-wise, the RSI is weak at 44, which means XRP is not trending — it is drifting. 

But the interesting part is that the RSI is making slightly higher lows while price keeps stalling at the same spots. 

That is mild bullish divergence. 

It does not guarantee a breakout, but it does show buyers are not completely dead.

Broader sentiment remains soft, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) down almost 2% on the day and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) hovering around $3,100 with a similar decline. 

ETF Inflows Diverge From Price Weakness

XRP Spot ETF Flows (Source: SoSoValue)

XRP's decline stands in sharp contrast to the behavior of its spot ETF, which has now logged 13 consecutive days of net inflows, marking one of the strongest accumulation streaks this quarter. 

The ETF added $67.7 million on Dec. 2 and another $50.2 million on Dec. 3, extending a multiweek trend that included $243 million on Nov. 14 and $164 million on Nov. 24.

Total net inflows have climbed past $874 million, pushing ETF assets over $900 million despite XRP trading inside a persistent downtrend. 

The gap between heavy ETF buying and weak price action has led traders to believe the market is holding XRP lower than it should be.

Cardano Breaks Out As Reversal Setup Gains Momentum

ADA Key Technical Levels (Source: TradingView)

Cardano has triggered its first meaningful breakout in eight weeks after pushing above the falling wedge resistance near $0.44 to $0.45. 

The move followed a clean defense of the $0.37 capitulation zone, indicating that buyers are regaining momentum.

The structure now supports a potential 50% rebound, but confirmation requires ADA to flip the Supertrend level at $0.48 to $0.50 from resistance into support. 

That zone rejected every recovery attempt in November and remains the most important trigger for trend validation.

A decisive close above $0.50 would open upside toward $0.62 and $0.68, where prior buyers are trapped and liquidity clusters overlap. 

These pockets create the conditions for a sharp move if shorts are forced to cover.

Failure to hold above $0.42 risks sending price back into the wedge. 

Also, the Parabolic SAR has turned bullish for the first time in this down-leg, marking a shift in directional bias.

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