Morgan Stanley: LendingClub's Investor Day Optimism Overshadowed By Modest Guidance

Peer-to-peer lending company LendingClub Corp (NYSE:LC) hosted its 2017 Investor Day on Thursday. The optimistic message relayed at the event was tempered by the muted guidance issued by the company, according to a Morgan Stanley analyst. 

The Analyst

The Thesis

LendingClub narrowed its expectations to a more modest top-line growth of 15-20 percent and margin of 20 percent by 2020, with the narrowing being more than what bulls expected, Faucette said in a Friday note. (See Faucette's track record here.)

The expectations were at least homogenized, the analyst said.

LendingClub also shed light on market opportunity and its internal growth initiatives — but the projected growth and profitability fell short of expectations, Faucette said.

The spelled-out objectives should help align Street and investor expectations, according to Morgan Stanley. 

"We expect LC to go through a period of reconstituting its investor base as some growth-oriented investors churn away, but this should [be] positioning the stock to start working again if it can deliver beats/raises against this new, lower benchmark," Faucette said. 

Morgan Stanley lowered its 2018 revenue estimate from $697 million to $693 million and also revenue estimate through 2020 to yield $961 million, down from a previous estimate of $976 million.

To account for LendingClub's elevated auto and tech spend, the firm lowered its 2018 adjusted EBITDA estimate from $98 million to $82 million. The 2020 estimate was lowered from $203 million to $189 million.

Offering its key takeaways from the event, Morgan Stanley said:

The Price Action

Shares of LendingClub are down 32 percent in the year-to-date period.

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